Solar PV water pumping study - FINAL REPORT ... - UNDP, Namibia

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Feasibility Assessment for the Replacement of Diesel Pumps with Solar Pumps FINAL REPORT: September 2006 The sensitivity analysis for fuel escalation and possible errors in the diesel engine fuel consumption are shown in Figure 3.21. As expected the LCC of the DP is highly sensitive to variations in the diesel price. The LCC of the PVP is slightly affected due to the costs associated with weekly inspection trips. The transport rates are all linked to the diesel price and therefore the changes in diesel cost will impact on the transport costs. % change in LCC 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 0% 4% 8% Real diesel escalation rate [%] PVP DP 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -15% 0% 15% Fuel consumption [%] Figure 3.21: Sensitivity analysis: Fuel escalation and fuel consumption Errors in the fuel consumption are not that critical as shown in the graph. With a 15% error the LCC changes by about 7%. The transport sensitivity was tested with the figures listed in Table 3.11. Table 3.11: Sensitivity values for transport distances Distances Reference case Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Distance to site 300km 0km 600km Distance to fuel 100km 0km 200km Distance between operator and pump 3km 0km 6km Figure 3.22 shows the sensitivity to transport distances. The LCC of the DP is significantly affected by transport distances and their associated costs. The LCC cost of a small PVP system is similarly affected due to the lower overall cost of the system. It is assumed that the PVP system is inspected weekly and is at a distance of 3km from the operator. As the PVP system size increases, the transport cost portion reduces as part of the overall cost. % change in LCC 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 0km 300 / 100 / 3km 600 / 200 / 6km Transport costs [km] Figure 3.22: Sensitivity analysis: Transport costs % change in LCC PVP Small PVP Medium PVP Large Transport therefore has a significant impact on the LCC of DPs and of small PVPs. Knowledge of local conditions for modelling PVP and DP financial performance will therefore be beneficial to avoid unrealistic assumptions on distances. DP PVP DP Page 40 of 76
Feasibility Assessment for the Replacement of Diesel Pumps with Solar Pumps FINAL REPORT: September 2006 4 FACILITATION OF PV PUMPING This section looks at what will facilitate the use of PV pumping beyond the financial case which was demonstrated in section 3 and commences with a high level analysis of the approximate number of boreholes which are suitable for Namibia 4.1 HIGH LEVEL MARKET POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT 5 This section explores the potential for PVPs through looking at the number of boreholes which are suitable for PVP operation. The Division of Geohydrology operating under the Department of Water Affairs (DWA) within the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development maintains a record of boreholes in Namibia. Although it is mandatory that all boreholes are registered with the DWA, in reality some of the boreholes drilled have not been registered. With the borehole survey of 2003 a database of 51,500 boreholes was established. The Resource Management Unit at the Department of Water Affairs determines sustainable abstraction rates for the boreholes based on a holistic resource management approach which takes into consideration the overall groundwater resources, the different types of aquifers and the recharging of the groundwater resources, among others. The unit advises the Directorate of Rural Water Supply (DRWS) on the appropriate abstraction rates for boreholes in the communal areas. Table 4.1 shows that 71% of the recorded boreholes are on freehold, privately owned land. The communal areas hold 24% of the recorded boreholes and these are administered by the Directorate of Rural Water Supply. The remaining 5% of boreholes are located on state controlled land. Table 4.1: Number of recorded boreholes in Namibia No of Percentage Sector boreholes of total Communal 12,233 24% Freehold 36,653 71% State 2,642 5% TOTAL 51,528 100% Not all of the boreholes drilled are usable. The quality measure of water is gauged by the amount of total dissolved solids (TDS) contained in the water. Potable water has a TDS of up to 2,000 mg/l, while the range from 2,000 mg/l to 5,000 mg/l can be used for livestock, and greater than 5,000 mg/l is unusable 6 . About half of the boreholes listed in the database have water quality records. The records show that about 80% of the boreholes have water quality fit for human consumption, 10% is suitable for livestock use only while another 10% is unusable. The chemical analysis of the other boreholes is not known and it is not possible to extrapolate from the above data to the overall water quality breakdown. However for the purposes of estimating the potential for 5 Information provided by Division of Geohydrology, Department of Water Affairs (DWA), Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development 6 Atlas of Namibia, A Portrait of the Land and its People, Mendelsohn. J, Jarvis. A, Robert. C and Robertson. T, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, 2002. Page 41 of 76
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Solar PV water pumping study - FINAL REPORT ... - UNDP, Namibia

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