Consumption and the environment (SOER2010) - European ...

Thematic assessment | Consumption and the environment
particular requiring rich feeds. But considerable amounts
of soybean feeds are also used in intensive dairy and
beef production. Therefore, replacement of products
from intensive cattle farming with those from chicken or
pork farming with lower per kg impacts will in general
give environmental benefits, although substantial
improvement potentials also remain for intensive
pork and chicken farming in Europe (JRC/IPTS, 2008).
However, it is likely to have negative effects on animal
welfare.
On the other hand, extensive (i.e. low density, low input)
cattle and sheep farming can have positive effects on
biodiversity in upland and nutrient poor areas of Europe
which are unsuitable for other types of farming including
intensive cultivation. Extensive livestock farming forms
an essential element of high nature value (HNV) farming
and European biodiversity goals. A shift from beef to
pork and chicken could, therefore, also negatively impact
extensive cattle farming and potentially HNV farming in
general (European Forum on Nature Conservation and
Pastoralism, 2010; Garnett, 2009).
While higher availability of meat and dairy products has
led to better availability of nutrients in human diets, it
also has contributed to negative health effects (Box 2.2).
Lower consumption of animal fats, for example butter,
is generally in line with dietary recommendations for a
large part of the European population (JRC/IPTS, 2009).
Another key issue is that of food waste. Based on data
from Eurostat and national data, it has been estimated
that around 89 million tonnes or 181 kg per person of
food waste was generated in the EU‐27 in 2006, of which
42–43 % was from households, 39 % from manufacturing
and the rest from other sources including retailers,
wholesale and the food service sector, but excluding
agricultural waste. Per person generation of total food
waste varies between countries by a factor of more than
10, reflecting not only differences in the importance
of the food industry between countries, but also data
uncertainties (Biointelligence Service et al., 2010).
A recent study shows that in the United Kingdom an
estimated 137 kg/person or 25 % of food purchased by
households ends up as waste, of which nearly two-thirds
would have been avoidable — roughly split between
leftovers from meals and not using the food in time
(WRAP, 2009). Any reduction in avoidable food waste
should eventually lead to equivalent reductions in
impacts upstream from agricultural production.
A further major issue related to food consumption is the
overexploitation of fish stocks. In all, 88 % of EU stocks are
already fished beyond their maximum sustainable yield,
and for some, such as North Sea cod, the vast majority
are caught before they have reproduced (EC, 2009b; EEA,
2010b). EU‐27 fish and seafood imports rose by an average
of 4.2 % per year in the period 2000–2007 (Eurostat, 2008).
4.3 Food and drink outlooks and
scenarios
Key determinants of changing food consumption in
the EU over the next decade may include: food prices,
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, developments
in transport costs, competition with biofuels and
developments in global food demand, developments in
preferences driven by health concerns, and changes in food
culture.
Average crop prices during 2009–2018 are projected to be
much lower than their 2007–2008 average — the recent
peak — while meat prices are not expected to change
substantially. Crop and livestock productivity is expected
to increase, especially in Central and Eastern Europe
— provided that new technologies, infrastructures and
services are successfully adopted. Assuming a recovery
of the economy, increasing incomes and relatively stable
food prices, the major trend over the next ten years could
be shifting consumption patterns rather than markedly
increasing per person consumption volumes (OECD/FAO,
2009).
The European Commission projects that the marked
decline in meat consumption seen between 2007 and 2008
due to price increases may continue for a short while as
a result of reduced incomes during the economic crisis,
but will recover again in the mid-term. However, the
growth is likely to be in pork, and especially poultry
consumption in relation to beef that is expected to
decline, though by less than 1 %. Production of pork and
poultry in Europe is unlikely to keep up with increases in
demand and will increasingly be imported from outside
Europe. Demand for cheese is also expected to grow by
10 % between 2008 and 2015 (European Commission,
2009a).
The projected small decline in the consumption of beef is
likely to have some positive effects on a number of key
environmental impacts from cattle farming by reducing
nitrate pollution and methane emissions if intensive
beef farming is reduced. Effects on biodiversity and land
management may be negative, however, if the reductions
take place in the extensive beef farming sector rather than in
the intensive one. A rapid growth in poultry consumption
will have major implications for animal waste disposal and
for animal welfare if the growth takes place in the intensive
sector. A small but continuing growth in calories consumed
could also raise questions about the health of the European
population in the future, with increasing levels of obesity
(Danish EPA, 2004).
The European environment | State and outlook 2010
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