long-term care use and supply in europe: projections for germany ...

Contents
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 1
References ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
2. Determinants of institutionalisation in Europe for elderly disabled people: Evidence from
Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland ............................................................................................ 4
Esther Mot, Erika Schulz, Agnieszka Sowa, Raquel Vegas and Jérôme Wittwer
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Methods and definitions ....................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Factors of institutionalisation in Europe for disabled elderly people ................................................... 6
2.2.1 Probability of institutionalisation for disabled elderly people in Spain .................................... 6
2.2.2 Probability of institutionalisation for disabled elderly people in the Netherlands .................... 7
2.2.3 Prevalence rates of institutionalisation for disabled elderly people in Germany ...................... 8
2.2.4 Prevalence rates of institutionalisation for disabled elderly people in Poland ........................ 10
2.3 Simulations of predicted probabilities ................................................................................................ 11
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
References ..................................................................................................................................................... 13
3. Determinants of use of formal and informal personal care by older persons living at home:
Evidence from Germany, the Netherlands and Spain .............................................................................. 15
Joanna Geerts
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 15
3.1 Determinants of home care utilisation ................................................................................................ 15
3.2 Study design ....................................................................................................................................... 17
3.2.1 Aim ......................................................................................................................................... 17
3.2.2 Data and methods .................................................................................................................... 17
3.3 Model results ...................................................................................................................................... 19
3.3.1 Germany .................................................................................................................................. 19
3.3.2 The Netherlands ...................................................................................................................... 20
3.3.3 Spain ....................................................................................................................................... 22
3.3.4 Country comparison ................................................................................................................ 23
3.3.5 Predicted probabilities of care use .......................................................................................... 24
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 27
References ..................................................................................................................................................... 27
4. Long-term care use in Europe: Projection model and results for Germany, the Netherlands,
Spain and Poland ......................................................................................................................................... 30
Joanna Geerts, Peter Willemé and Adelina Comas-Herrera
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 30
4.1 Description and structure of the model .............................................................................................. 30
4.1.1 Projected numbers of older persons by age, gender, disability and other relevant
characteristics .......................................................................................................................... 32
4.1.2 Projected numbers of care users by age, gender, disability and other relevant
characteristics .......................................................................................................................... 34
4.2 Base and alternative scenarios ............................................................................................................ 35
4.2.1 Base scenario assumptions ...................................................................................................... 35
4.2.2 Alternative disability scenarios ............................................................................................... 36
4.2.3 Changing household composition scenario ............................................................................. 37
4.2.4 Better education scenario ........................................................................................................ 38
4.3 Data sources ....................................................................................................................................... 38
4.3.1 Population and disability projections ...................................................................................... 38