long-term care use and supply in europe: projections for germany ...

LONG-TERM CARE USE AND SUPPLY IN EUROPE | 25
reverse for the other countries. Another relevant finding is that use of formal care increases much less
steeply with age in Spain than it does in the Netherlands and Germany. By contrast, use of informal care
hardly increases with age in the Netherlands, while it does steeply rise with age in Spain and Germany.
The different age gradients suggest that the impact of population ageing on the numbers of formal and
informal care users can be expected to differ considerably between the three countries.
Figure 3.2 Predicted probabilities of care use, by age
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
GE NL ES GE NL ES GE NL ES GE NL ES GE NL ES
65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Informal only Formal only Informal and formal
Data: SHARE Wave 1 and Wave 2, pooled data, weighted results, own calculations.
Figure 3.3 shows care use probabilities by household composition. While in the Netherlands and
Germany persons living alone have a higher predicted probability of using any form of care than persons
living with others, the reverse holds for Spain. This could be a reflection of compositional differences. In
all three countries both the probability of becoming widowed or losing one’s partner and the probability
of care dependency rise with age. Hence, on average, older persons living alone can be expected to need
and use more care than persons living with their partner. In Spain however, this tendency could be offset
to a certain extent by the high co-residence rate of older dependent persons and their adult children.
Another relevant finding is that, in Spain, probabilities of using formal care are not much higher for
persons living alone compared to persons living with others, while in the Netherlands and Germany,
older persons living alone have a much higher probability of using formal care than persons living with
others.