long-term care use and supply in europe: projections for germany ...

LONG-TERM CARE USE AND SUPPLY IN EUROPE | 43
Figure 4.2 Prevalence of residential care use, in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland,
2010-2060, DELAY scenario (% of total population aged 65 and over)
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
DE NL ES PL
Source: see Table 4.2.
As is shown in Figure 4.3 to Figure 4.6, the projected numbers of residential care users are quite
sensitive to alternative bio-demographic scenarios. In the four countries, projected numbers of
residential care users are lowest under the CONST scenario. This scenario assumes that mortality rates
would not decrease in future years, resulting in lower numbers of older persons and, hence, lower
numbers of care users. Leaving the 'optimistic' and not very realistic CONST scenario out of
consideration, the projected numbers of residential care users still vary considerably in Germany. In the
Netherlands, Spain and Poland, projections are less sensitive to alternative assumptions about disability
trends. This difference in sensibility to alternative disability projections is related to differences in the
share of non-disabled residential care users and in the age-gradient of residential care use. In the four
countries, the projected increase in the number of residential care users between 2010 and 2060 is lowest
under the BIOL scenario, DELAY comes next, followed by PREV and CHRON.
For Germany, the projected increase in the number of residential care users between 2010 and 2060
ranges from 74% under the BIOL scenario to 153% under the CHRON scenario. For the Netherlands the
increase ranges from 188% to 231 %, for Spain from 159% to 168% and for Poland from 130% to 176%
(see Table A4.6, Table A4.9, Table A4.12 and Table A4.15 in Appendix).