long-term care use and supply in europe: projections for germany ...

LONG-TERM CARE USE AND SUPPLY IN EUROPE | 41
4.4 Projection results
This section describes the results of the projection of LTC users between 2010 and 2060 for Germany,
the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. The projected numbers of older persons using residential care under
different bio-demographic, risk factor and socio-demographic scenarios are presented in section 4.4.1.
Section 4.4.2 and section 4.4.3 provide the projection results for formal and informal care use by older
persons residing at home. Next, section 4.4.4 summarizes projection results for all types of care in the
total and disabled population. More detailed projection results are provided in Table A4.6 to Table
A4.15 in Appendix.
4.4.1 Projected numbers of residential care users
Table 4.2 shows that, under the base DELAY scenario, the numbers of residential care users in Germany
are projected to increase from approximately 650,000 in 2010 to around 1,300,000 in 2060, an increase
of 102%. The numbers of residential care users are projected to increase gradually to the end of the
projection horizon, peaking at approximately 1,360,000 in 2055 and then declining to 1,310,000 in
2060. The base year estimate of around 650,000 residential care users closely matches the number of
persons receiving benefits from the long-term care insurance scheme for residential care (650,262 in
2009).
Table 4.2 Projected numbers of residential care users, in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland,
2010-2060,DELAY scenario (in thousands)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
% increase
2010-2060
DE 648 729 814 906 978 1028 1108 1218 1321 1360 1310 102%
NL 142 160 180 206 245 299 339 375 408 429 426 200%
ES 364 400 426 465 522 593 680 777 858 918 954 162%
PL 59 67 77 88 98 110 121 129 136 141 149 152%
Source: Own calculations based on Bonneux et al. (2011), Chapter 1, Statistisches Bundesamt (2009), Schulz
(2008), Statistics Netherlands (2011), Golinowska and Sowa (2011), GUS 2000-2010a, GUS
2000-2010b.
In the Netherlands, the projected increase in the numbers of residential care users amounts to 200%,
from around 140,000 in 2010 to approximately 425,000 in 2060. The numbers of residential care users
are projected to increase gradually to 2055 and to decline afterwards. The estimated base year number of
residential care users is slightly less than the number of 155,560 residential care users reported for 2009
by Statistics Netherlands, based on administrative records of the Algemene Wet Bijzondere
Ziektekosten (AWBZ, Exceptional Medical Expenses Act; latest available figure). The latter figure
includes persons temporarily staying in residential care facilities. For Spain, the numbers of residential
care users are projected to increase from around 365,000 in 2010 to almost 955,000 in 2060, an increase
of 162%. The rate of increase is projected to be relatively low until 2025 but to accelerate considerably
afterwards. The base year number of residential care users is higher than the number of residential care
users (222,521 in 2008) reported in the WP 1 country report for Spain (Gutiérrez et al., 2010). The latter
figure includes dependent residents only and, as is illustrated in Table 4.3 below, in Spain a considerable
share of residential care users is not ADL dependent. For Poland, the numbers of residential care users
will increase from about 59,000 in 2010 to about 149,000 in 2060, an increase of 152 %. There is no
single data source covering the total numbers of people in residential care in Poland and the figures
published vary substantially. We are grateful to colleagues at CASE (for providing us with an estimate.
Please note that the baseline figure for number of people in care homes in Poland is expected to grow
fast in the next few years, which means that projections assuming that numbers in care homes grow at
the same rate as numbers of older disabled people may result in an underestimate.