long-term care use and supply in europe: projections for germany ...

List of Tables
Table 1.1 Typology of long-term care systems ························································································ 2
Table 2.1 Probability to be institutionalised in Spain (Logit models, coefficients) ·································· 7
Table 2.2 Probability to be institutionalised in the Netherlands (Logit models, coefficients) ··················· 8
Table 2.3 Prevalence rates of institutionalisation in Germany by sex, age and care level
(people aged 60 and over) Percent of care dependent population and percent of
total population (in brackets) ································································································· 10
Table 2.4 Age and gender structure of the residential care population in Poland and prevalence rates
of institutionalisation by sex and age (in percent) ·································································· 11
Table 2.5 Predicted probabilities of institutionalisation in Spain (in percent) ········································ 12
Table 2.6 Predicted probabilities of institutionalisation in the Netherlands (in percent)························· 13
Table 3.1 Determinants of care utilisation, Germany (Multinomial logit model, coefficients) ··············· 20
Table 3.2 Determinants of care utilisation, the Netherlands (Multinomial logit model, coefficients) ····· 21
Table 3.3 Determinants of care utilisation, Spain (Multinomial logit model, coefficients) ···················· 22
Table 4.1 Data availability ···················································································································· 40
Table 4.2 Projected numbers of residential care users, in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and
Poland, 2010-2060,DELAY scenario (in thousands) ····························································· 41
Table 4.3 Residential care population by ADL disability, in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain
and Poland, 2010 and 2060, Delay Scenario (absolute numbers (in thousands) and %) ········· 42
Table 4.4 Projected numbers of formal home care users, in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain,
2010-2060, DELAY scenario (in thousands) ········································································· 49
Table 4.5 Projected numbers of informal care users, in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain,
2010-2060, DELAY scenario (in thousands) ········································································· 55
Table A4.1 Household composition projections, Germany, 2010-2050 % of non-instutionalised
population ······························································································································ 67
Table A4.2 Household composition projections, the Netherlands, 2010-2060 % of non-institutionalised
population ······························································································································ 67
Table A4.3 Educational level projections, Germany, 2010-2050 (% of population) ································· 68
Table A4.4 Educational level projections, the Netherlands, 2010-2050 (% of population) ······················· 69
Table A4.5 Educational level projections, Spain, 2010-2050 (% of population) ······································· 69
Table A4.6 Projected numbers of residential care users, Germany, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 70
Table A4.7 Projected numbers of formal home care users, Germany, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 71
Table A4.8 Projected numbers of informal home care users, Germany, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 71
Table A4.9 Projected numbers of residential care users, the Netherlands, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 72
Table A4.10 Projected numbers of formal home care users, the Netherlands, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 72
Table A4.11 Projected numbers of informal care users, the Netherlands, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 73
Table A4.12 Projected numbers of residential care users, Spain, 2010-2060, all scenarios (in thousands) · 73
Table A4.13 Projected numbers of formal home care users, Spain, 2010-2060, all scenarios
(in thousands) ························································································································ 74
Table A4.14 Projected numbers of informal care users, Spain, 2010-2060, all scenarios (in thousands) ···· 74
Table A4.15 Projected numbers of residential care users, Poland, 2010-2060, all scenarios (in thousands) 75
Table 5.1 Results (odds ratios) from logistic regression models of the proportion of people aged 50
and over providing informal personal care to older generation in Germany, the Netherlands,
Spain and Poland, 2006/7 (Odds ratios and significance levels) ············································· 82