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Page 14 The Softwood Forest Products Buyer - Miller Publishing ...

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July/August 2011 <strong>Page</strong> 25Ontario/QuebecBusiness TrendsBy Michelle KellerAssociate EditorFor those who areable to take advantageof foreign markets, the <strong>Softwood</strong>lumber trade is seeing better days. Butfor those who are restricted, either bychoice or design to domestic sales,the prospect of improved numbersremains elusive. Despite this, mill andwholesale owners remain optimisticthat the market, even on the domesticfront, will improve. <strong>The</strong> only questionthat remains is when.<strong>The</strong> purchasing agent for an Ontariomill said his company’s internationalsales had increased over the pastyear, but added that production numbersfor the United States andCanada remained unimpressive atbest.“If you’re looking at the global picture,I would say it had probably gone up,”he said of demand. “But if you arelooking at North America, I’d say itwas flat.”He tied the anemic domestic numbersdirectly to the U.S. economy,specifically the housing market. Henoted that annual housing starts in theU.S. dipped from approximately twomillion several years ago to about500,000 today. <strong>The</strong> Canadian markethas slowed as well, but from 200,000housing starts down to about 180,000.In contrast, he noted, there has beena significant increase in constructionstarts in China, leading to moredemand for two-by-fours. He addedthat he is seeing a lot more wideboards heading to China, where theyare ripped down.If the Chinese economy continues togrow, he predicted an increaseddemand for <strong>Softwood</strong> that would beused as substrates for the furnitureconstruction industry. In this case, thePine base would be used as a substructurefor veneers and laminates,as in the case of some tabletops.“I think the Chinese market is goingto continue to grow and we’ll see moreemerging markets for SPF now thatwe can export,” he said, citingchanges to the tariff codes. He predictedthat, in addition to China,Canadian <strong>Softwood</strong> lumber producerswould also find greener markets indeveloping nations such as India.Although some have decried the risingfuel costs as one of the factors thathas continued to batter the <strong>Softwood</strong>market, this purchaser said that thecost is often passed downstream tothe consumer.“When the surcharge goes up, weshift to rail,” he said, adding that if andwhen rail costs rise, they will likelyswitch back to trucks.At a Quebec mill, one sales representativeshared much the same storyregarding the level of domesticdemand. “It’s probably a little bit lessthan what we were expecting,” he saidof market growth. “Last year, everyonewas expecting it would be better, but ithas not been as nice as expectations.”He added that from a domestic pointof view, everyone he knows is hopingfor a better year in 2012.Unfortunately, he noted, thereContinued on page 31South/SoutheastBusiness TrendsBy Gary <strong>Miller</strong>Managing EditorAccording tosources in thesoutheast region, prices of SouthernYellow Pine (SYP) have been off forthe higher grades, forcing industrialgrades to soften.“About this time lastyear prices of No. 2 SYP hit their highand stayed there for quite awhile.Early this year those prices started tofall and prices on the lower gradeshave decreased also,” a supplier inMississippi mentioned.When asked about the factorsinvolved in his operation’s currentbusiness conditions, the contact said,“Overall the economy is not makinglarge enough gains to keep demandfor upper grade lumber moving. Pricesare especially low in the 2x6’s.”Whether or not prices will continue totrend lower, the source said, dependson upper grade pricing along withother factors. “As we continue to growour No. 3 and 4 inventories, prices ofindustrials are subject to more cuts,”he explained. He also said some buyershave shown more interest in 4x4’ssince the price of the 8’ dropped about$100 in recent weeks. Another factorhe mentioned is paper mills. “We’vehad some wet months and the papermills have been going strong and payingbig bucks for logs, which hasmade it difficult for sawmills to competewhen trying to purchase logs.”As for transportation costs the suppliersaid while they are rising, he isn’texperiencing anything out of the ordinaryfor this time of year. “As we hitthe summer months, fuel rates alwaysincrease. <strong>The</strong> area of concern withtransportation for us right now is ashortage of trucks. We have ordersready to ship but are unable to getthem out for a couple of days as aresult of trucking availability.”When asked about the outlook for theremainder of 2011 the contact said, “Ithink we’ll do good if we break eventhis year. Anything is bound to be animprovement over 2010.”In Tennessee a <strong>Softwood</strong> suppliersaid his prices for treated SYP haveimproved. “Warmer weather haslargely contributed to our sales overall.Fuel prices are still a primary concernfor us. Surcharges continue torise and we try to absorb some of it,but it’s getting harder.”As for what lies ahead in the remaininghalf of 2011 the source is optimistic.“We’ve seen some goodmonths since April, so I think businesswill continue to stabilize.”An Alabama supplier said marketconditions are better from a year agobut recovery is marginal. “I think ourprimary concern is the bank’s unwillingnessto loan money to the builders.”Handling Southern Yellow Pine,Cypress, Cedar and Spruce, the contactsaid he is not having many availabilityissues. “<strong>The</strong>re does seem to bea little shortage of Cypress out there.However, most of the <strong>Softwood</strong>species of lumber are in relativelygood supply right now.He did mention his inventory levelsare down about ten percent. “AgainContinued on page 32

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