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EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015-final

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www.ey.com/<strong>attractiveness</strong>ViewpointDespitesetbacks, Africais still risingAubrey HrubyVisiting Fellow, Africa Center atThe Atlantic Council.Aubrey Hruby is a long-time advisor tocompanies and funds investing in Africanmarkets, co-author of the forthcomingThe Next Africa (Macmillan, June <strong>2015</strong>),and Visiting Fellow at the Africa Center atthe Atlantic Council.Rapid economicgrowth is neitherlinear nor smooth,and there will bemany detoursand bumps on thecontinent’s roadto prosperityDespite all the excitement about the Africa Leaders Summithosted by President Obama last summer, 2014 ended ina smattering of negative headlines for Africa. Plummetingcommodity prices, increasing insecurity in regional hubs(Nigeria and Kenya) and a popular uprising in Burkina Fasoall significantly dampened the exuberance of the “Africarising” narrative. In addition, the humanitarian crisis of theEbola outbreak also affected investors’ confidence. The fallin the perceived <strong>attractiveness</strong> of Africa in <strong>2015</strong> reported inthis <strong>survey</strong> reflects these setbacks, in addition to concernsabout political uncertainty, given the elections this year in 10African countries.Companies already working in the continent, as well as thoselooking to explore African opportunities for the first time,should resist the swing of the pundit’s pendulum between“Afro-optimism” and “Afro-apocalypse.” Instead they shouldtake a realistic, medium-term view. Rapid economic growth isneither linear nor smooth, and there will be many detours andbumps on the continent’s road to prosperity.In making business decisions in African markets, it is best togain a deep understanding of the broad trends — demographic,socioeconomic, technological and political — shaping specificsubregions, and combine that with access to the best realtime,on-the-ground data available. Thankfully, there are nowfar more resources available for companies looking to dosmart business in the region than there were a decade ago.Also critical for success is an appreciation of the “soft” alongwith the more traditional “hard” skills required for doingdeals in Africa. Complex financial models will rarely comeclose to assessing the real cost of regulatory uncertaintyand underdeveloped governance systems. Companies willgain competitive advantage in Africa by integrating directlyinto commercial and deal teams, people with the ability tomanage stakeholders, engage government officials, developpartnerships, and navigate emerging market realities.<strong>EY</strong>’s <strong>attractiveness</strong> <strong>survey</strong> Africa <strong>2015</strong> Making choices35

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