EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015-final

www.ey.com/attractivenessThe still-volatile situation in the Sahel andthe current crisis in the Central AfricanRepublic are stark reminders that SSA isstill home to a number of fragile countries.In addition, non-state actors (such asBoko Haram and al-Shabab) can easilycross borders, creating fragility withinmore robust countries too. The spread ofinfectious disease (e.g., Ebola) and socialinstability compound these risks. In thisway, increased fragility in SSA may beincreasing investors’ perception of risk.As far as foreign investors are concerned,however, the long-term trend shows thatSSA has democratized progressively andthat political and economic governancehas improved. For instance, our AfricanLeadership Transitions Tracker shows thatthe number of multiparty elections hasbeen increasing consistently. In the shortterm, however, elections in the regionare likely to be associated with higherpolitical risk. However, different Africancountries have different risks associatedwith elections. In some, unfortunately, therisk of post-electoral violence and the riskof policy reversal will be significant, butin others, it will be lower. In sum, when itcomes to political risk analysis, it shouldpay to discriminate among countries. Butthat would be just the first step. The threetenets of risk management: identifying,measuring, and managing risk would payeven more.Real risks mustbe identified,measured andmanagedPresidential and legislative elections inAfrica in 2015GuineaTBDMauritiusMayCote d’IvoireOctober TogoMarchBurkina fasoNovemberGeneralParliamentaryPresidentialTBD: To be declaredNigerTBDNigeriaFebruaryLibyaTBDChadTBDNote: Tanzania will also holda constitutional referendum inApril 2015 and Burundi was dueto hold its parliamentary elections inMay, and presidential elections in June.SouthSudanEgyptMarchSudanAprilJulyEthiopiaMayZambiaJanuaryBurundiMid-2015TanzaniaOctoberSource: Foresight Africa, Top Priorities for the Continent in 2015,Africa Growth Initiative, Brooking Institution, January 2015.EY’s attractiveness survey Africa 2015 Making choices37