EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015-final

Future Assuring Africa’s long-term growthLooking ahead: toward inclusive, sustainable growthLooking to the next decade and beyond, EY’s best-case scenarioanalysis suggests that Africa will be working toward inclusive andsustainable growth. This path must combine robust economicprogress with a far greater emphasis on enterprise development,job creation and human welfare.Charting a path to inclusive growthConnectivityTo enable lasting growth, African economies must close thecompetitiveness gap, get more people working, develop economicresilience, create more consumers and increase domesticdemand. This “high road” scenario will build on the foundationof 15 years of economic, political and social progress, withAfrica emerging as a significant global economic power withmore diverse, sustainable economies and growing prosperityfor its people.TimelineSuboptimalgrowthInclusive,sustainablegrowthOutcomeInclusive,sustainable growthCooperationBackslidingUneven andisolated15 years12 yearsInter- andintra-regionalintegrationJobcreation inprivate sectorMore effectivegovernmentIntra-Africantrade growsMiddle classexpands9 yearsPowerdeficit metGreaterfood securityFTAsstrengthenSkilleddiasporareturn6 yearsEnergyPPPsSA*growing3%+LAPSSET**semioperationalNigeriafiscallydiverseChinesedemandholds*South Africa**Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET)The “low road” is a scenario in which the economic successwe have experienced over the last 15 years fails to deliverfundamentally improved lives for most Africans, and inequalitycontinues to widen. This scenario would likely lead to political andsocial instability, and African economies might begin to stagnateor even backslide.Based on our analysis, vital to Africa’s success will be connectingand integrating markets across the continent, and nurturing the(related) cooperation between the public, private and social sectors.These twin vectors are necessary to encourage inclusive growth,and create the social, market and political conditions and institutionsnecessary to harness the potential demographic dividend.By combining high levels of connectivity and public-privatecollaboration, we will start to assemble essential “buildingblocks” that will enable Africa to achieve inclusive, sustainablegrowth. In the near term, gains will be exemplified by Nigeria’songoing economic diversification, South Africa’s return tohigher growth levels, and the proliferation of effective publicprivatepartnerships (PPPs), notably in energy provision. Animproving global economy and ongoing Chinese demand forAfrica’s resources have laid foundations for more progress in themedium term.42 EY’s attractiveness survey Africa 2015 Making choices