Hydrologic Issues for Dams - Association of State Dam Safety Officials

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honestly express our confidence limits, sensitivity and fuzziness of our answers. Weneed to get out of our boxes to observe and mimic the complex ways that nature works.Paper 7 – Lindon 28
The Utah Hydrological ExperienceByMatthew C. Lindon, P.E. 1Design Inflow Flood CalculationDeterministic calculation of PMP/PMF for High HazSome Incremental Damage AssessmentSmall reservoir, large dams,Debris basins, Flood Control100 year storm minimum design stormSome Risk AssessmentPrioritize resource allocation,Bang for the BuckLocal and General Storm - 6 - 72 hourCurve Number and Constant Infiltration ratesLittle gaging and calibrationHMR 49 and State Specific PMPBlack Box Spatial and Temporal DistributionState specific PMPMorgan Storm of August 1958Dr Jensen, USU review7 inches in 1-hour hub cap studyBase storm for HMR-49 - western USA20 or 200 square milesDr Jarrett reviewNo Paleo evidence of the storm locally or regionallyPoint precip possible??1 Utah DNR, Dam Safety Hydrologist29Paper 7 – Lindon
Page 1 and 2: The National DamSafety ProgramResea
Page 3 and 4: collaboration and expertise, and th
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTSPage #FOREWORD....
Page 7 and 8: NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND NEEDS IN SITE-
Page 9 and 10: FOREWORDThe Federal Emergency Manag
Page 11 and 12: The PMF represents an estimated upp
Page 13 and 14: RESEARCH AREASResearch needs were b
Page 15 and 16: Lack of Historical Data for Extreme
Page 17 and 18: should be developed that will allow
Page 19 and 20: • Storms used in HMR 55A and in t
Page 21 and 22: last 20,000 year s in submitting th
Page 23 and 24: d. USBR Guidelines Publication, Dam
Page 25 and 26: was severe. There was a potential,
Page 27 and 28: Thirdly, we must develop better way
Page 29 and 30: For most projects, the first step f
Page 31 and 32: Instead of lumping the loss rates t
Page 33 and 34: adjust the rating curve for when th
Page 35 and 36: In response to this situation, TVA
Page 37 and 38: TVA established a Regional Resource
Page 39: The Utah Hydrological ExperienceByM
Page 43 and 44: Late SpringRain on snow eventModel
Page 45 and 46: State of GeorgiaFEMA Workshop on Hy
Page 47 and 48: a. HEC1• DOS based program - glit
Page 49 and 50: Long te rm hydrologic needs include
Page 51 and 52: Current State and County PracticesA
Page 53 and 54: present standards and, as such, are
Page 55 and 56: Research Needs in Dam Safety Analys
Page 57 and 58: Looking at the four test cases give
Page 59 and 60: Hydrologic Analyses Related to Dam
Page 61 and 62: (iii) Modified Expected Cost Approa
Page 63 and 64: Parameter Estimation Based on Joint
Page 65 and 66: estimation of lag times and loss ra
Page 67 and 68: Hydrology for Dam Safety - Private
Page 69 and 70: Probable Maximum PrecipitationAll o
Page 71 and 72: The most common synthetic methods a
Page 73 and 74: the standard would be very conserva
Page 75 and 76: 65Paper 12 - Cecilio
Page 81 and 82: REFERENCES1. U. S. Army Corps of En
Page 83 and 84: Overview of Flood Estimation Proced
Page 85 and 86: Extreme FloodsExtreme floods, the t
Page 87 and 88: Temporal patterns used to distribut
Page 89 and 90: Preliminary Estimates of Rainfall a
Page 91 and 92:
24 to 72 hours). CRC Research Repor
Page 93 and 94:
CURRENT AND FUTURE HYDROLOGIC RESEA
Page 95 and 96:
ecause existing procedures are inad
Page 97 and 98:
REGULATORY INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNIC
Page 99 and 100:
Decision BasisThe third feature of
Page 101 and 102:
However, should it be revealed that
Page 103 and 104:
supporting sub-processes. Therefore
Page 105 and 106:
Probability ofFailure P f1Probabili
Page 107 and 108:
Since any rigorous analysis is an i
Page 109 and 110:
well, and usually do include subjec
Page 111 and 112:
Against this background, there is n
Page 113 and 114:
Howson, Colin., and Peter. Urbach.
Page 115 and 116:
Procedures and Analysis Technologie
Page 117 and 118:
Currently transposition limits for
Page 119 and 120:
pro cedures are used to allow the h
Page 121 and 122:
Use of Atmospheric Models in Rainfa
Page 123 and 124:
mountain watersheds in response to
Page 125 and 126:
18. Schaefer MG, Stochastic Modelin
Page 127 and 128:
dams which could be used to save li
Page 129 and 130:
Hydrodynamic modelMIKE 21 BACKGROUN
Page 131 and 132:
A FRAMEWORK FOR CHARACTERIZATION OF
Page 133 and 134:
c) Decision Level Risk Assessment:
Page 135 and 136:
credible estimates of extreme flood
Page 137 and 138:
Fitting a distribution to data sets
Page 139 and 140:
unoff volumes. Examples of this typ
Page 141 and 142:
used to estimate frequency distribu
Page 143 and 144:
Hosking, J.R.M., and J.R. Wallis, 1
Page 145 and 146:
in west central Arizona. The draina
Page 147 and 148:
Trial and error reservoir routings
Page 149 and 150:
Figure 1 Alamo DamAlamo Dam and Spi
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Paper 19 - Chieh and Evelyn 146
Page 153 and 154:
esources are made to mitigate flood
Page 155 and 156:
implementing a risk-assessment meth
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Typically, the elevation of the top
Page 159 and 160:
similar to that of the high-gradien
Page 161 and 162:
and provides a cost-effective frame
Page 163 and 164:
10000E. Colorado
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10000x Peak Discharge95% confidence
Page 167 and 168:
An integrated science approach will
Page 169 and 170:
ReferencesBaker, V.R., Kochel, R.C.
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Partnerships, Proceeding of the 200
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Flood HydrographThe flood hydrograp
Page 175 and 176:
A variety of data including informa
Page 177 and 178:
Improved Flood Frequency Extrapolat
Page 179 and 180:
RESEARCH NEEDS SUMMARYJerry Webb, H
Page 181 and 182:
o Unsteady flow computer models for
Page 183 and 184:
• Upd ate “Generalized Snowmelt
Page 185 and 186:
DISCUSSION1. Genera l - After the p
Page 187 and 188:
participant was asked to pick what
Page 189 and 190:
RISK ANALYSIS100Relative Comparison
Page 191 and 192:
WORKSHOPONHYDROLGIC RESEARCH NEEDSF
Page 193:
JOE SKUPIENPrincipal Hydraulic Engi
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Hydrologic Issues for Dams - Association of State Dam Safety Officials

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