Hydrologic Issues for Dams - Association of State Dam Safety Officials

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CURRENT HYDROLOGIC PRACTICES, PROBLEMS, and NEEDS WITHINCALIF ORNIA’S DAM SAFETY PROGRAM(Paper 21)Melissa CollordCalifornia Department of Water Resources (DWR), Division of Safety ofDams (DSOD) ....................................................................................... 167BUREAU OF RE CLAMATION HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH(Paper 22)Robert E. Swain, Louis C. Schreiner and Daniel R. Levish(Presented by Lou Schreiner)U.S. Bureau of Reclamation ................................................................. 169RESEARCH NEEDS SUMMARY ............................................................................ 175DISCUSSION .............................................................................................................. 181PARTICIPANTS ......................................................................................................... 188vi
FOREWORDThe Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored a workshop onHydrologic Research Needs for Dam Safety. The workshop was held on 14-15November 2001, at the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC). HEC was responsible forthe technical program and workshop coordination.Information on current practices for computation of Probable Maximum Precipitation(P MP) , Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) and risk factors associated with dam safety andcase exa mples were covered in the workshop. The workshop participants presented avariety of papers and information relating to research needs for dam safety. Corpsparticipants included representatives from Headquarters, Districts and the HEC. Non-Corps participants were from the following offices:1. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR)2. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)3. Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)4. The States of California, Utah and Georgia dam safety programs5. Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)6. US Geological Survey (USGS)7. University of California at Davis and Utah State University8. MGS Engineering and Applied Weather Associates9. Sinclair Knight Metz, Australia and BC Hydro, Canada10. Somerset County, New JerseyThe workshop provided a forum for the exchange of ideas related to the risks involvedwith operation of small to very large dams. There were discussions on the reasonablenessof the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of a PMF and how the computed value of thePMF com pares to data from paleoflood analyses.The focus of the workshop was to prioritize recommendations for research needs relatedto Dam Safety.vii
Page 1 and 2: The National DamSafety ProgramResea
Page 3 and 4: collaboration and expertise, and th
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTSPage #FOREWORD....
Page 7: NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND NEEDS IN SITE-
Page 11 and 12: The PMF represents an estimated upp
Page 13 and 14: RESEARCH AREASResearch needs were b
Page 15 and 16: Lack of Historical Data for Extreme
Page 17 and 18: should be developed that will allow
Page 19 and 20: • Storms used in HMR 55A and in t
Page 21 and 22: last 20,000 year s in submitting th
Page 23 and 24: d. USBR Guidelines Publication, Dam
Page 25 and 26: was severe. There was a potential,
Page 27 and 28: Thirdly, we must develop better way
Page 29 and 30: For most projects, the first step f
Page 31 and 32: Instead of lumping the loss rates t
Page 33 and 34: adjust the rating curve for when th
Page 35 and 36: In response to this situation, TVA
Page 37 and 38: TVA established a Regional Resource
Page 39 and 40: The Utah Hydrological ExperienceByM
Page 41 and 42: The Utah Hydrological ExperienceByM
Page 43 and 44: Late SpringRain on snow eventModel
Page 45 and 46: State of GeorgiaFEMA Workshop on Hy
Page 47 and 48: a. HEC1• DOS based program - glit
Page 49 and 50: Long te rm hydrologic needs include
Page 51 and 52: Current State and County PracticesA
Page 53 and 54: present standards and, as such, are
Page 55 and 56: Research Needs in Dam Safety Analys
Page 57 and 58: Looking at the four test cases give
Page 59 and 60:
Hydrologic Analyses Related to Dam
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(iii) Modified Expected Cost Approa
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Parameter Estimation Based on Joint
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estimation of lag times and loss ra
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Hydrology for Dam Safety - Private
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Probable Maximum PrecipitationAll o
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The most common synthetic methods a
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the standard would be very conserva
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65Paper 12 - Cecilio
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Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
REFERENCES1. U. S. Army Corps of En
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Overview of Flood Estimation Proced
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Extreme FloodsExtreme floods, the t
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Temporal patterns used to distribut
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Preliminary Estimates of Rainfall a
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24 to 72 hours). CRC Research Repor
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CURRENT AND FUTURE HYDROLOGIC RESEA
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ecause existing procedures are inad
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REGULATORY INVOLVEMENT AND COMMUNIC
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Decision BasisThe third feature of
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However, should it be revealed that
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supporting sub-processes. Therefore
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Probability ofFailure P f1Probabili
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Since any rigorous analysis is an i
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well, and usually do include subjec
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Against this background, there is n
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Howson, Colin., and Peter. Urbach.
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Procedures and Analysis Technologie
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Currently transposition limits for
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pro cedures are used to allow the h
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Use of Atmospheric Models in Rainfa
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mountain watersheds in response to
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18. Schaefer MG, Stochastic Modelin
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dams which could be used to save li
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Hydrodynamic modelMIKE 21 BACKGROUN
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A FRAMEWORK FOR CHARACTERIZATION OF
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c) Decision Level Risk Assessment:
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credible estimates of extreme flood
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Fitting a distribution to data sets
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unoff volumes. Examples of this typ
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used to estimate frequency distribu
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Hosking, J.R.M., and J.R. Wallis, 1
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in west central Arizona. The draina
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Trial and error reservoir routings
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Figure 1 Alamo DamAlamo Dam and Spi
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Paper 19 - Chieh and Evelyn 146
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esources are made to mitigate flood
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implementing a risk-assessment meth
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Typically, the elevation of the top
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similar to that of the high-gradien
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and provides a cost-effective frame
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10000E. Colorado
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10000x Peak Discharge95% confidence
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An integrated science approach will
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ReferencesBaker, V.R., Kochel, R.C.
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Partnerships, Proceeding of the 200
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Flood HydrographThe flood hydrograp
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A variety of data including informa
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Improved Flood Frequency Extrapolat
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RESEARCH NEEDS SUMMARYJerry Webb, H
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o Unsteady flow computer models for
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• Upd ate “Generalized Snowmelt
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DISCUSSION1. Genera l - After the p
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participant was asked to pick what
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RISK ANALYSIS100Relative Comparison
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WORKSHOPONHYDROLGIC RESEARCH NEEDSF
Page 193:
JOE SKUPIENPrincipal Hydraulic Engi
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