Direct and Spillover Effects of ATP-Funded Photonics Technologies

Executive SummaryThe Advanced Technology Program (ATP) aims to stimulate the development of high-risktechnologies with potential, broad national economic benefits. ATP seeks to support researchprojects that otherwise would not be undertaken by the private sector, or carried out asquickly with the necessary scale or scope, because of the high technical risk associated withthe research. In evaluating ATP as a program, the key issue is the impact of ATP relative towhat would have happened without it. The research methodology of the present study is tocompare an ATP awardee project with a nonawardee proposed project that was not fundedby ATP, but was a semifinalist in the final selection round in the same technology area andATP award competition as the awardee project. Both market and knowledge spillovers aretracked into the network of customers, competitors, suppliers, and even others outside of theoriginally conceived markets. To explicitly investigate market spillovers and knowledgespillovers, a novel methodology of combining “snowball” interviewing with patent andpublication citation analysis is developed. In addition, a dynamic analysis of the defendertechnologies displaced by the ATP awardee technology is used. The main research work forthis study was carried out during 2001-2004.Methodology Definitions• Snowball interview methodology: Interviews with key customers, suppliers, andcompetitors to measure market spillovers.• Static defender methodology: Estimating the value of a new technology by comparing toan existing technology already in the market, while assuming that the existing technologyremains static and unchanging.• Dynamic defender methodology: Estimating the value of a new technology by comparingto competitor technologies being developed in the market, while assuming the competitortechnologies are dynamic and changing.Executive Summaryvii