<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>Economic Outlook n° 1187 | Special Report | The <strong>Re<strong>in</strong>dustrialization</strong> of the United States• • • shores after college graduation, <strong>in</strong>stead of send<strong>in</strong>gthem away to compete aga<strong>in</strong>st the U.S. Taxes onrepatriated capital should be removed.The overwhelm<strong>in</strong>g success this <strong>in</strong>dustry enjoys is dueto <strong>in</strong>satiable global demand for its products such aspersonal computers, smart phones, and tablets.Competition and cont<strong>in</strong>uous <strong>in</strong>novation have createddemand for products unimag<strong>in</strong>ed just a fewyears ago. Yet this same competition cont<strong>in</strong>uouslydrives prices down due to <strong>in</strong>creased productivity,automation, off-shor<strong>in</strong>g, and cont<strong>in</strong>uous improvement<strong>in</strong> semiconductor design. The <strong>in</strong>dustry is furthercharacterized by a convergence of features onnew products, such as cameras, web browsers andemail on phones. Research and Design (R&D) spend<strong>in</strong>gis critical <strong>in</strong> this <strong>in</strong>dustry.Globally the consumer electronics <strong>in</strong>dustry grewsomewhat more slowly <strong>in</strong> 2012 than previously anticipated,around 2.5%. The <strong>in</strong>dustry probably exceeded$1 trillion <strong>in</strong> added value <strong>in</strong> 2012. Much of the growthis due to emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets which are not yet fullypenetrated. In the U.S. <strong>in</strong> 2013 however, consumerelectronics revenues are expected to grow 4.5% andexceed $215 billion, accord<strong>in</strong>g to the ConsumerElectronics Association (CEA). Smartphone saleswill comprise the largest segment of revenue at $34billion but will only grow 24%. Tablet sales will skyrocketover 80% higher to almost $30 billion. Personalcomputers have slowed due to cannibalization fromtablets, but ultrabook laptop sales are still expectedto reach $15 billion. The Manufacturers Alliance forProductivity and Innovation (MAPI) forecasts hightech<strong>in</strong>dustrial production (computers and electronicproducts) to grow by 5.7% <strong>in</strong> 2013 <strong>in</strong> the U.S. Highergrowth <strong>in</strong> production vs. revenues is to be expected<strong>in</strong> this <strong>in</strong>dustry with ever-fall<strong>in</strong>g prices.u PetroleumCalifornia has large crude oil reserves and is the thirdlargest producer of crude <strong>in</strong> the nation. Much of thedemand for this crude comes from with<strong>in</strong> the stateitself and this demand is not expected to drop off <strong>in</strong>the foreseeable future. Of all the states, California hasby far the most vehicles. There are 20 million cars <strong>in</strong>California, 15% of the nation’s total of 135 million. Thenext closest state, Texas, has a little more than halfthat many. Includ<strong>in</strong>g trucks, buses and commercialvehicles, there are a total of 33 million vehicles <strong>in</strong> California,or 14% of the nation’s total. The vast majorityof these vehicles run on gasol<strong>in</strong>e, followed by dieselfuel, and natural gas. Forty percent of all energy consumed<strong>in</strong> California is for transportation.California has always been at the vanguard of environmentalprotection and as such it has uniquerequirements for the gasol<strong>in</strong>e that can be used there.As a result, California ref<strong>in</strong>eries are ranked third <strong>in</strong>capacity nationwide and are basically the only oneswhich produce these blends. The ref<strong>in</strong>eries run atalmost 100% capacity to meet demand. Furthermore,California ref<strong>in</strong>eries have no competition from outsideof the state and are not expected to soon. Thesepresent very good conditions for bus<strong>in</strong>ess go<strong>in</strong>g forward– unquenchable demand and no competitors.California is also the 12th largest producer of naturalgas and, aga<strong>in</strong>, demand is built-<strong>in</strong> with<strong>in</strong> the state.Over 57% of the state’s electricity is derived fromnatural-gas fired plants. And as the price of naturalgas fallen, the cost advantages for runn<strong>in</strong>g vehicleson this fuel will become more apparent. Municipalbusses, commercial trucks, and other vehicles arealready mak<strong>in</strong>g the switch. Build<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>frastructureto support the grow<strong>in</strong>g use of natural gas is likelyto be a significant <strong>in</strong>dustry go<strong>in</strong>g forward as there arevery few fill<strong>in</strong>g stations available.Despite its somewhat spotty record, renewableenergy is mak<strong>in</strong>g strong <strong>in</strong>roads <strong>in</strong> California andwill certa<strong>in</strong>ly be a growth <strong>in</strong>dustry go<strong>in</strong>g forward. For<strong>in</strong>stance, California ranks first <strong>in</strong> electricity productionfrom renewables such as biomass and geothermalenergy. Given the state’s propensity to take thelead on improv<strong>in</strong>g energy efficiency, California willlikely be the premier market for the developmentof renewable energy. For example California haspassed a global warm<strong>in</strong>g bill which, accord<strong>in</strong>g to thestate, “establishes a first-<strong>in</strong>-the-world comprehensiveprogram to achieve cost-effective reductions <strong>in</strong>greenhouse gases through energy conservation andrenewable energy production, effectively mak<strong>in</strong>gCalifornia a hotbed of renewable energy and energy34
Economic Outlook n° 1187 | Special Report | The <strong>Re<strong>in</strong>dustrialization</strong> of the United States<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>efficiency <strong>in</strong>novations.” The state has also establishedthe California “million solar roofs <strong>in</strong>itiative” aim<strong>in</strong>g tocreate one million solar roofs <strong>in</strong> California by 2018.u Other <strong>in</strong>centivesCalifornia is try<strong>in</strong>g to lure manufactur<strong>in</strong>g jobs back tothe states with many different programs. One sucheffort is the “Innovation Hub,” which accord<strong>in</strong>g tothe state government “seeks to improve the state'snational and global competitiveness by stimulat<strong>in</strong>gpartnerships, economic development and job creationaround specific research clusters throughout thestate. Innovation Hubs target young, <strong>in</strong>novative companiesthat have been <strong>in</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess for less than eightyears <strong>in</strong> a technology cluster…” Other efforts <strong>in</strong>cludeIndustrial Development Bonds and Small Bus<strong>in</strong>essLoan Guarantees.u ExportsTo support exports, the state has twelve cargo airportsand eleven cargo seaports <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the two largest <strong>in</strong>the nation, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Thestate’s 17 Foreign Trade Zones (FTZ) are <strong>in</strong>tended to promoteexports by delay<strong>in</strong>g, or even forego<strong>in</strong>g export orimport taxes and duties. The computer and electronicsmanufactur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry is of course well represented <strong>in</strong>exports, compris<strong>in</strong>g 29% of the state’s total. California’s topexport markets <strong>in</strong>clude the stable Canadian economy andthe more rapidly grow<strong>in</strong>g economies of Mexico, Ch<strong>in</strong>a andSouth Korea. ©The state government is currently provid<strong>in</strong>g a menuof tax <strong>in</strong>centives to lure manufactur<strong>in</strong>g to Californiaas well. These <strong>in</strong>clude a Research and DevelopmentTax Credit, a Film and TV Production Tax Credit, aWork Opportunity Tax Credit, a Net Operat<strong>in</strong>g LossCarryover provision and f<strong>in</strong>ally, <strong>in</strong> an attempt to furtherpromote “green energy”, the state is offer<strong>in</strong>gSales & Use Tax Exemptions for Clean Tech Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g.35