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Table 8.Percent of individuals who win and lose 5 percent or more of income at age 67 between the baseline andU.K. scenarios, by selected characteristicsCharacteristicFirstboomers(1946–1950)WinnersSecondboomers(1951–1955)Thirdboomers(1956–1960)Lastboomers(1961–1965)Firstboomers(1946–1950)LosersSecondboomers(1951–1955)Thirdboomers(1956–1960)Lastboomers(1961–1965)All 1 1 2 3 3 7 9 10SexWomen 1 1 2 2 3 7 9 11Men 1 1 2 3 3 8 10 10Marital statusNever married 1 1 2 3 1 7 8 8Married 1 1 2 3 3 8 10 11Widowed 1 1 1 3 2 6 7 9Divorced 1 1 2 2 3 6 9 11Race/ethnicityNon-Hispanic white 1 1 2 3 3 8 10 11Non-Hispanic black 1 1 2 3 3 7 10 12Hispanic 1 1 2 2 3 3 7 7Other 0 1 2 2 1 5 5 7EducationHigh school dropout 0 1 1 1 1 2 4 6High school graduate 1 1 2 3 3 7 10 11College graduate 1 1 2 3 4 8 10 12Labor force experienceLess than 20 years 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 420 to 29 years 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 630 or more years 1 1 2 3 4 9 11 12Shared lifetime earningsBottom quintile 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 32nd quintile 1 1 2 3 2 4 6 83rd quintile 1 1 2 3 3 8 10 124th quintile 1 1 3 4 4 11 13 13Top quintile 2 2 2 3 5 12 15 16Income quintileBottom quintile 0 1 1 2 1 1 2 32nd quintile 1 1 2 3 2 4 7 93rd quintile 1 1 2 3 4 8 11 124th quintile 1 1 2 3 4 12 15 14Top quintile 1 1 1 2 5 10 12 15SOURCE: Authors' computations of MINT5 (see text for details).NOTE: Sample includes individuals with a change of $10 in per person family income at age 67 between the baseline and U.K. scenarios.Projections exclude individuals with family wealth in the top 5 percent of the distribution. Shared lifetime earnings is the average of wageindexedshared earnings between ages 22 and 62, where shared earnings are computed by assigning each individual half the total earningsof the couple in the years when the individual is married and his or her own earnings in years when nonmarried. Winners and losers aredefined as having a 5 percent or more change in income between the baseline and U.K. scenarios.16 Social Security Bulletin • Vol. 69 • No. 3 • 2009
Table 9.Change in mean family income per person at age 67 for winners and losers between the baseline andU.K. scenarios, by selected characteristics (in thousands of 2007 dollars)CharacteristicFirstboomers(1946–1950)WinnersSecondboomers(1951–1955)Thirdboomers(1956–1960)Lastboomers(1961–1965)Firstboomers(1946–1950)LosersSecondboomers(1951–1955)Thirdboomers(1956–1960)Lastboomers(1961–1965)All 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.8 -2.6 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2SexWomen 2.0 2.1 1.7 3.0 -2.6 -3.6 -4.0 -4.2Men 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 -2.5 -3.9 -4.3 -4.3Marital statusNever married 3.8 1.4 2.7 4.7 -2.5 -5.3 -6.2 -6.1Married 2.1 1.5 1.5 2.3 -2.4 -3.3 -3.5 -3.8Widowed 1.3 4.8 1.8 4.1 -3.0 -4.7 -4.8 -5.5Divorced 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.6 -3.3 -4.7 -5.9 -5.0Race/ethnicityNon-Hispanic white 2.1 1.9 1.7 3.0 -2.7 -3.8 -4.3 -4.5Non-Hispanic black 3.2 1.5 3.3 1.6 -1.8 -3.9 -4.2 -4.6Hispanic 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -2.9 -2.6Other 0.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 -1.6 -4.2 -4.3 -3.2EducationHigh school dropout 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 -1.5 -1.7 -2.1 -2.8High school graduate 1.4 1.6 1.3 2.1 -1.9 -3.0 -3.3 -3.4College graduate 3.1 2.2 2.9 4.7 -3.8 -5.6 -6.7 -6.1Labor force experienceLess than 20 years 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 -3.1 -2.5 -3.3 -3.320 to 29 years 2.5 1.4 0.8 1.4 -2.2 -2.6 -3.1 -2.630 or more years 2.1 1.8 1.9 3.0 -2.6 -3.8 -4.3 -4.4Shared lifetime earningsBottom quintile 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.6 -2.22nd quintile 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -2.03rd quintile 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 -1.8 -2.5 -2.8 -3.14th quintile 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.1 -2.5 -3.8 -4.0 -4.0Top quintile 3.1 3.1 2.7 6.4 -3.9 -6.1 -7.5 -7.6Income quintileBottom quintile 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.72nd quintile 2.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -1.6 -1.63rd quintile 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.2 -1.5 -2.2 -2.5 -2.74th quintile 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.2 -4.4Top quintile 3.1 3.3 2.5 5.8 -4.6 -6.8 -8.2 -8.0SOURCE: Authors' computations of MINT5 (see text for details).NOTE: Projections exclude individuals with family wealth in the top 5 percent of the distribution. Shared lifetime earnings is the average ofwage-indexed shared earnings between ages 22 and 62, where shared earnings are computed by assigning each individual half the totalearnings of the couple in the years when the individual is married and his or her own earnings in years when nonmarried. Winners andlosers are defined as having at least a $10 change in income between the baseline and U.K. scenarios.Social Security Bulletin • Vol. 69 • No. 3 • 2009 17
Page 1 and 2: Social SecuritySocial SecurityBulle
Page 3: Social SecurityBulletin Vol. 69, No
Page 6 and 7: Perspectives77 An Empirical Study o
Page 8 and 9: Selected Abbreviations—continuedM
Page 10: within the next few years (Aglira 2
Page 14 and 15: coverage varies significantly by ra
Page 16 and 17: non-Hispanic white, and college edu
Page 18 and 19: same groups (Table 6). For the last
Page 20 and 21: from DB to DC pensions is accelerat
Page 24 and 25: not necessarily the largest gains a
Page 26 and 27: shoring-up DB plans before those pl
Page 28 and 29: Table B-1.Percent change in mean pe
Page 30 and 31: Table B-3.Percent of individuals wh
Page 32 and 33: ReferencesAaronson, Stephanie, and
Page 35 and 36: Social Security Administration’s
Page 37: Chart 1.Historical expansion of Soc
Page 40 and 41: self-employment information for the
Page 42 and 43: (Cronin 1985). The final earnings r
Page 44 and 45: prior to 1950, first year of earnin
Page 46 and 47: average indexed monthly earnings (A
Page 48 and 49: 13For an explanation of how the sel
Page 50 and 51: Kopczuk, Emmanuel Saez, and Jae Son
Page 53 and 54: Occupations of SSI Recipients Who W
Page 55 and 56: on the differences between the occu
Page 57 and 58: prediction models. Table A-1 lists
Page 59 and 60: Occupational Distributions of theEm
Page 61 and 62: similar, only 4 percent of the popu
Page 63 and 64: Table 5.Estimated occupational dist
Page 65 and 66: Table 7.Predicted Herfindahl-Hirsch
Page 67 and 68: Table 9.Estimated occupational dist
Page 69 and 70: Table 11.Average annual wages of wo
Page 71 and 72: Table A-2.Means and standard errors
Page 73 and 74:
Table A-3.Coefficients and standard
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
management, professional, and relat
Page 81:
Stapleton, David C., Nanette Goodma
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Selected Abbreviations—continuedO
Page 86 and 87:
The 1983 Amendments to the Social S
Page 88 and 89:
Chart 1.Proportion of new claimants
Page 90 and 91:
Table 4.The evolution of the ARF an
Page 92 and 93:
for the test of equality of means b
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Table 8.Average monthly Social Secu
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in the chart, especially for men, t
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6This is a very important character
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Benítez-Silva, Hugo, Berna Demiral
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OASDI and SSI Snapshot andSSI Month
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Monthly Statistical Snapshot, Augus
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Table 2.Recipients, by eligibility
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SSI Federally Administered Payments
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Table 7.Average monthly payment, by
Page 113:
Awards of SSI Federally Administere
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Copyright—Authors are responsible
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Program Highlights, 2009Old-Age, Su
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