Economic Report President

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Chart 4-1 Life Expectancy at Age 65The number of years that Americans can expect to live after the age of 65 has increasedthroughout the 20th century and is expected to continue increasing.Years of life remaining2520Women15Men10501900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Source: Data prior to 1998 from Department of Health and Human Services; 1998-2040 projectionsfrom Social Security Administration.Chart 4-2 Population of the United States by AgeBaby-boomers created a bulge in the population of children and adolescents 30 years agoand will move into retirement ages over the next 30 years.Ages85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-90-41968 1998 20280 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25Population (millions)Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).133
and 2010 as a result of low fertility in the 1930s, that rate will morethan double in the following 20 years. Also as a result of the babyboom, different age groups among the elderly will peak at differenttimes: those between 65 and 74 will peak at 38 million in 2030, andthose 75 to 84 will peak at 29 million 10 years later.The “oldest old,” those aged 85 and over, are of particular concernbecause of their high rates of poverty and institutionalization,described below. This group will grow both in number and as a share ofthe population, from about 4 million today to 18 million by 2050.Accounting for about 1.5 percent of all Americans today, the oldest oldare projected to make up 23 percent of the elderly population andabout 5 percent of the overall population 50 years from now.At the same time that the size of the elderly population is increasing,its racial, ethnic, and gender composition will also change. In 1998 thenon-Hispanic white population accounted for the largest proportion ofelderly, and their number is projected to nearly double to 52.0 million by2050. But the proportion of non-Hispanic whites in the elderly populationwill decline as the numbers of elderly persons of other racial and ethnicgroups grow even faster, causing their proportion of the elderly populationto double (Chart 4-3). The elderly Hispanic population, for example,is expected to grow to 13.8 million in 2050, or eight times what it was in1998. In 1994, elderly women outnumbered elderly men by a ratio of 3 to2 overall, and by 5 to 2 among those over 85. About half of elderly womenwere widowed, more than three times the percentage for elderly men,who were nearly twice as likely to be married.Chart 4-3 Projections of the Population Aged 65 Years and OverThe share of the elderly population that is white, non-Hispanic is projected to fall byabout one-fifth between 1998 and 2050.Percent120100White, non-HispanicNative American, non-HispanicBlack, non-HispanicHispanicAsian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic8060402001998 2050Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).134
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EconomicReportof thePresidentTransm
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C O N T E N T SPageECONOMIC REPORT
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Once we have saved Social Security,
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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C O N T E N T SPageCHAPTER 1. MEETI
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PageCHAPTER 5. REGULATION AND INNOV
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Page2-3. Accounting for Growth in R
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Page6-5. Terms of Trade ...........
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CHAPTER 1Meeting Challenges and Bui
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Box 1-1.—The Dating of Business C
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Chart 1-1 Core Inflation and Unempl
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expansion prematurely. In fact, the
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the duration of the typical unemplo
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throughout that decade of peace and
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all individuals aged 65 and older r
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extent that it would reduce Social
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the vulnerability of the internatio
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access. Even so, international agre
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eliminated entirely, because the go
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Nevertheless, adjustment assistance
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CHAPTER 2Macroeconomic Policyand Pe
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Then the chapter explores two other
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target Federal funds rate brought t
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high of 66.8 percent in the third q
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the third-quarter deceleration and
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(that is, excluding food and energy
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probably would have increased by ab
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Equities clearly involve risk as we
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highest level in at least 40 years
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attributed to the lesser liquidity
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971231 980106 980112 980116 980122
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about the potential impact of large
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With respect to leverage, the degre
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noted earlier, investment-grade bor
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Chart 2-8 Corporate Profits and Net
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is attributable to the strong econo
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productivity; the latter is in turn
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the year 2000, mistaking it instead
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Box 2-2.—continuedare not expecte
Page 82 and 83: construct an accurate forecasting m
Page 84 and 85: is estimated as the location where
Page 86 and 87: the recent surge in productivity re
Page 88 and 89: Box 2-3.—continuedhowever. Import
Page 90 and 91: Chart 2-12 Three Measures of Core I
Page 92 and 93: a level of capacity utilization tha
Page 94 and 95: Box 2-4.—continuedChanges to be i
Page 96 and 97: Nonfarm manufacturing and trade inv
Page 98 and 99: has been for the past 3 years. But
Page 100 and 101: who have traditionally not fared as
Page 102 and 103: Box 3-1.—continuedas well as full
Page 104 and 105: and been replaced by younger, more
Page 106 and 107: Particularly interesting, however,
Page 108 and 109: Chart 3-5 Median Hourly Wages of Me
Page 110 and 111: In fact, in 1990 immigrants and nat
Page 112 and 113: Box 3-2.—continuedsome firms may
Page 114 and 115: Box 3-3.—continuedmaximum of $3,7
Page 116 and 117: willing to hire welfare recipients
Page 118 and 119: participation. The renewed increase
Page 120 and 121: TANF grants in reserve at the Treas
Page 122 and 123: JOB DISPLACEMENTWorkers are conside
Page 124 and 125: evidence finds that the percentage
Page 126 and 127: their non-labor market activities.
Page 128 and 129: The Administration is especially co
Page 130 and 131: CHAPTER 4Work, Retirement, and theE
Page 134 and 135: Population aging is not just an Ame
Page 136 and 137: Box 4-1.—continuedfor couples and
Page 138 and 139: earlier retirement, by increasing l
Page 140 and 141: uyouts may also have contributed to
Page 142 and 143: Box 4-2.—Social Security RulesThe
Page 144 and 145: available with the same hourly pay,
Page 146 and 147: Box 4-4.—Types of Pension PlansUn
Page 148 and 149: worker—declined. More of these ol
Page 150 and 151: survey) was about 13 percent higher
Page 152 and 153: well-being is that families have di
Page 154 and 155: Chart 4-9 Living Arrangements of El
Page 156 and 157: mentioned earlier in this chapter a
Page 158 and 159: Box 4-7.—The Federal Role in Empl
Page 160 and 161: inequality among retirees who have
Page 162 and 163: whether minorities and women are li
Page 164 and 165: TABLE 4-4.—Poverty Rates Among th
Page 166 and 167: TABLE 4-6.—Family Holdings of Fin
Page 168 and 169: variety of reasons, including the f
Page 170 and 171: the number of patents granted in th
Page 172 and 173: The United States has a decades-lon
Page 174 and 175: matter, depending on various condit
Page 176 and 177: company Roche Holdings, Ltd. Some o
Page 178 and 179: The antitrust authorities’ linkin
Page 180 and 181: espective Writings and Discoveries.
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Box 5-3.—Cooperative Innovation a
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machine owned by another. The disti
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companies begin to offer DSL servic
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and compete for customers on the ba
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In another part of the Internet mar
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technology at hand. But incentive-b
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the flexibility to choose lower cos
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In contrast to both performance and
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The SO 2 experience reveals several
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Box 5-7.—The Partnership for a Ne
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Consumers’ investment in energy e
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clean-energy projects in developing
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Chart 5-2 Energy Efficiency and Pri
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equipment, and more than 90 percent
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Box 5-9.—Is There an Environmenta
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larger coal plants. In 1994 these t
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around the country, and seven other
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other social goals. The fund would
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greater opportunity, faster growth,
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Chart 6-1 Net Capital Flows to Deve
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Box 6-1.—The Explosive Growth of
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Recent Financial LiberalizationIn m
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and investment (although openness t
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Box 6-2.—Market-Based (Arm’s-Le
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conditionality in the face of unsou
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Box 6-4.—Sovereign Spreads in Eme
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social safety nets in the crisis co
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Box 6-5.—Moral Hazard in Financia
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Empirical studies confirm that, by
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withdrew $26 billion in 1997. Altho
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America, and these linkages partly
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8.5 percent of GDP in 1998. Indones
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sary revenues to meet these extra i
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which is considered a monetary asse
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ates at home, they sought higher re
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Chart 6-3 Real Value of the Dollar
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The increase in the trade deficit a
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Chart 6-6 Current Account BalanceTh
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Chart 6-7 Economic Growth and Trade
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investment. The U.S. gross investme
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Chart 6-10 Current Account Deficit
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with other countries to strengthen
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REFORM OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCI
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about their macroeconomic and finan
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decisions respond to market signals
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Other measures recommended by the w
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ADOPTION OF MEASURES TO REFORM THEI
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Another way to improve global surve
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Issues Posed by Hedge Funds and Oth
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the best investment opportunities,
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egulation of inflows to banks alone
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complement the role of official fin
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emerging markets will take time to
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Box 7-1.—continuedpartner; a stro
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Chart 7-1 European Short-Term Inter
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members agreed in a separate Growth
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Box 7-2.—continuedthrough an auto
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advantages of EMU to U.S. residents
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Box 7-3.—How Does the Dollar Rank
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connection between the currency in
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as an economic superpower early in
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Appendix AREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Chair and Members work as a tea
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countries. The Council heads the U.
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Chief of Staff and General CounselM
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affiliations. They are Christopher
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C O N T E N T SNATIONAL INCOME OR E
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B-71. Aggregate reserves of deposit
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General NotesDetail in these tables
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TABLE B-1.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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TABLE B-4.—Percent changes in rea
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TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
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TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
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TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
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TABLE B-9.—Real gross domestic pr
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Year orquarterGrossdomesticproductT
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YearBased on1972 SIC:TABLE B-13.—
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TABLE B-15.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-17.—Real personal consump
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TABLE B-19.—Real private gross fi
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TABLE B-21.—Real government consu
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TABLE B-23.—Real inventories and
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TABLE B-25.—Real exports and impo
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TABLE B-27.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-31.—Total and per capita
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TABLE B-32.—Gross saving and inve
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
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TABLE B-37.—Civilian employment b
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TABLE B-39.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-41.—Civilian employment/p
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TABLE B-43.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-45.—Unemployment insuranc
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TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-48.—Employment cost index
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Year orquarterTABLE B-50.—Changes
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Year or monthTABLE B-52.—Industri
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TABLE B-54.—Capacity utilization
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Year or monthTABLE B-56.—New hous
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TABLE B-58.—Manufacturers’ ship
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PRICESTABLE B-60.—Consumer price
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TABLE B-61.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-63.—Changes in special co
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TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
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YearandmonthMONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AN
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TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-72.—Bank credit at all co
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TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
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TABLE B-76.—Mortgage debt outstan
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GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-78.—Fed
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TABLE B-80.—Federal receipts and
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TABLE B-82.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-84.—Federal and State and
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TABLE B-86.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-88.—Maturity distribution
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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TABLE B-92.—Corporate profits of
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TABLE B-94.—Relation of profits a
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Year or monthTABLE B-96.—Business
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End of yearTotalassetsTABLE B-98.
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YearFarm population,April 1Number(t
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YearTABLE B-102.—U.S. exports and
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-105.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-107.—International invest
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TABLE B-109.—Civilian unemploymen
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TABLE B-111.—International reserv
show all

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