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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE B–90.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,1959–98[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Year or quarterCorporateprofits withinventoryvaluationand capitalconsumptionadjustmentsCorporateprofitstaxliabilityCorporate profits after tax with inventoryvaluation and capital consumption adjustmentsTotalDividendsUndistributedprofits withinventoryvaluationand capitalconsumptionadjustments1959 .................................................... 52.9 23.6 29.2 12.7 16.51960 .................................................... 51.4 22.7 28.7 13.4 15.31961 .................................................... 52.5 22.8 29.7 14.0 15.71962 .................................................... 60.5 24.0 36.5 15.0 21.51963 .................................................... 66.3 26.2 40.1 16.1 24.01964 .................................................... 73.3 28.0 45.3 18.0 27.31965 .................................................... 84.1 30.9 53.3 20.2 33.11966 .................................................... 89.8 33.7 56.2 20.9 35.21967 .................................................... 87.4 32.7 54.7 22.1 32.71968 .................................................... 94.2 39.4 54.9 24.6 30.21969 .................................................... 90.9 39.7 51.3 25.2 26.01970 .................................................... 78.7 34.4 44.4 23.7 20.71971 .................................................... 92.0 37.7 54.3 23.7 30.51972 .................................................... 106.7 41.9 64.8 25.8 39.01973 .................................................... 120.1 49.3 70.8 28.1 42.71974 .................................................... 109.2 51.8 57.4 30.4 27.01975 .................................................... 128.2 50.9 77.3 30.1 47.21976 .................................................... 154.9 64.2 90.7 35.9 54.81977 .................................................... 184.3 73.0 111.3 40.8 70.51978 .................................................... 209.0 83.5 125.5 46.0 79.51979 .................................................... 213.1 88.0 125.1 52.5 72.61980 .................................................... 188.3 84.8 103.5 59.3 44.11981 .................................................... 207.0 81.1 125.9 69.5 56.41982 .................................................... 182.3 63.1 119.2 66.7 52.51983 .................................................... 235.2 77.2 157.9 74.4 83.61984 .................................................... 290.1 94.0 196.1 79.3 116.81985 .................................................... 304.0 96.5 207.5 83.9 123.61986 .................................................... 293.8 106.5 187.3 91.4 95.91987 .................................................... 333.2 127.1 206.1 96.0 110.01988 .................................................... 382.1 137.0 245.1 111.1 134.01989 .................................................... 380.0 141.3 238.7 134.4 104.31990 .................................................... 397.1 140.5 256.6 143.9 112.71991 .................................................... 411.3 133.4 277.9 147.2 130.81992 .................................................... 428.0 143.0 285.0 147.9 137.11993 .................................................... 492.8 165.2 327.6 157.6 170.11994 .................................................... 570.5 186.6 383.8 182.4 201.41995 .................................................... 672.4 211.0 461.4 205.3 256.11996 .................................................... 750.4 226.1 524.3 261.9 262.41997 .................................................... 817.9 246.1 571.8 275.1 296.71993: I ................................................. 459.2 149.2 309.9 150.7 159.2II ................................................ 478.2 165.4 312.8 154.5 158.3III .............................................. 492.8 161.2 331.5 159.8 171.8IV .............................................. 541.2 184.9 356.3 165.4 191.01994: I ................................................. 512.0 163.0 348.9 170.2 178.7II ................................................ 562.0 182.8 379.3 178.1 201.2III .............................................. 590.1 194.6 395.5 186.0 209.5IV .............................................. 617.7 206.2 411.5 195.3 216.21995: I ................................................. 629.3 202.9 426.4 197.1 229.3II ................................................ 653.9 207.6 446.3 199.0 247.3III .............................................. 698.6 219.1 479.4 204.4 275.0IV .............................................. 707.8 214.3 493.5 220.7 272.71996: I ................................................. 735.9 223.9 512.0 247.6 264.4II ................................................ 748.3 228.6 519.7 257.1 262.6III .............................................. 755.4 227.7 527.7 269.1 258.7IV .............................................. 762.0 224.2 537.8 273.6 264.21997: I ................................................. 794.3 238.8 555.5 274.1 281.4II ................................................ 815.5 241.9 573.6 274.7 299.0III .............................................. 840.9 254.2 586.7 275.1 311.5IV .............................................. 820.8 249.3 571.4 276.4 295.01998: I ................................................. 829.2 239.9 589.3 277.3 312.0II ................................................ 820.6 241.6 579.0 278.1 300.9III .............................................. 827.0 243.2 583.7 279.0 304.8Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Analysis.431
TABLE B–91.—Corporate profits by industry, 1959–98[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustmentDomestic industriesYear orquarterTotalTotalTotalFinancial 1FederalReservebanksOtherTotalManufacturing2NonfinancialTransportationandpublicutilitiesWholesaletradeRetailtradeOtherRestof theworld1959 .................... 53.1 50.4 7.0 0.7 6.3 43.4 26.5 7.1 2.8 3.3 3.6 2.71960 .................... 51.0 47.8 7.7 .9 6.7 40.2 23.8 7.5 2.5 2.8 3.6 3.11961 .................... 51.3 48.0 7.5 .8 6.8 40.4 23.4 7.9 2.5 3.0 3.6 3.31962 .................... 56.4 52.6 7.6 .9 6.8 45.0 26.3 8.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.81963 .................... 61.2 57.1 7.3 1.0 6.4 49.8 29.6 9.5 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.11964 .................... 67.5 63.0 7.5 1.1 6.4 55.5 32.4 10.2 3.4 4.5 5.1 4.51965 .................... 77.6 72.9 7.9 1.3 6.5 65.0 39.7 11.0 3.8 4.9 5.6 4.71966 .................... 83.0 78.5 9.2 1.7 7.5 69.3 42.4 11.9 3.9 4.8 6.2 4.51967 .................... 80.3 75.5 9.5 2.0 7.6 66.0 39.0 10.9 4.0 5.6 6.4 4.81968 .................... 86.9 81.3 10.9 2.5 8.4 70.4 41.7 11.0 4.5 6.4 6.8 5.61969 .................... 83.2 76.6 11.6 3.1 8.5 65.0 37.0 10.6 4.8 6.4 6.2 6.61970 .................... 71.8 64.7 13.1 3.5 9.6 51.6 27.1 8.2 4.3 6.0 5.9 7.11971 .................... 85.5 77.7 15.2 3.3 11.9 62.5 34.8 8.9 5.1 7.2 6.6 7.91972 .................... 97.9 88.4 16.4 3.3 13.1 72.0 41.4 9.4 6.8 7.4 7.1 9.51973 .................... 110.9 96.0 17.5 4.5 13.0 78.5 46.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 8.2 14.91974 .................... 103.4 85.9 16.2 5.7 10.5 69.7 40.7 7.6 11.3 2.3 7.7 17.51975 .................... 129.4 114.8 15.9 5.6 10.3 98.9 54.5 10.9 13.6 8.2 11.6 14.61976 .................... 158.9 142.3 19.9 5.9 14.0 122.4 70.7 15.3 12.7 10.5 13.3 16.51977 .................... 186.8 167.7 25.7 6.1 19.6 142.0 78.5 18.5 15.4 12.4 17.1 19.11978 .................... 213.1 190.2 31.8 7.6 24.1 158.4 89.6 21.7 15.4 12.3 19.4 22.91979 .................... 220.2 185.6 31.6 9.4 22.2 153.9 88.3 16.9 18.5 9.8 20.5 34.61980 .................... 198.3 162.9 24.3 11.8 12.6 138.5 75.8 18.3 16.7 6.1 21.6 35.51981 .................... 204.1 174.4 18.7 14.4 4.3 155.7 87.5 20.1 21.9 9.8 16.3 29.71982 .................... 166.8 139.4 15.6 15.2 .4 123.8 63.4 20.9 19.0 13.1 7.4 27.41983 .................... 203.7 173.1 24.8 14.6 10.2 148.3 72.8 29.7 18.7 18.7 8.4 30.61984 .................... 238.5 205.8 20.5 16.4 4.1 185.3 86.6 39.7 27.8 21.5 9.8 32.71985 .................... 230.5 197.1 29.0 16.3 12.6 168.1 81.6 34.3 20.6 22.5 9.1 33.41986 .................... 234.0 199.3 36.4 15.5 20.9 162.9 60.2 38.1 22.9 23.7 18.0 34.61987 .................... 272.9 231.3 37.1 15.7 21.4 194.2 85.0 41.7 16.7 23.9 26.9 41.61988 .................... 325.0 274.3 43.0 17.6 25.4 231.2 115.1 48.7 19.3 19.6 28.5 50.71989 .................... 330.6 272.6 53.1 20.2 32.9 219.6 109.3 42.6 20.4 20.7 26.6 58.01990 .................... 358.2 292.5 68.6 21.4 47.2 223.8 112.3 43.2 17.2 20.6 30.6 65.71991 .................... 378.2 309.5 87.4 20.3 67.1 222.1 92.7 53.9 20.6 26.1 28.9 68.71992 .................... 398.9 334.0 83.7 17.8 65.9 250.3 96.3 57.8 23.0 32.2 41.0 64.91993 .................... 456.9 383.0 82.9 16.1 66.8 300.1 116.7 69.4 24.3 38.9 50.9 73.91994 .................... 519.1 445.7 69.4 17.8 51.7 376.3 151.6 83.1 29.4 46.0 66.2 73.41995 .................... 613.0 523.4 104.6 22.2 82.4 418.8 183.9 86.0 26.2 43.3 79.5 89.51996 .................... 679.0 582.6 110.7 21.8 88.9 471.8 195.6 92.7 37.9 51.8 93.8 96.41997 .................... 741.2 642.2 130.0 23.3 106.6 512.3 214.4 88.4 49.8 61.2 98.5 99.01993: I ................. 419.2 339.7 76.6 16.4 60.2 263.1 95.8 65.5 20.5 34.7 46.5 79.5II ................ 444.4 374.5 84.7 16.0 68.6 298.8 115.1 68.2 26.3 36.6 43.6 69.9III ............... 459.8 382.7 79.4 16.0 63.4 303.3 113.8 70.0 24.8 41.4 53.3 77.1IV ............... 504.1 435.2 91.0 15.9 75.0 344.2 142.2 73.8 25.4 42.7 60.2 68.91994: I ................. 470.8 398.9 44.1 16.1 28.1 354.7 149.7 74.0 28.1 41.6 61.3 71.9II ................ 510.2 437.9 72.3 16.8 55.5 365.6 138.8 82.3 33.8 47.4 63.2 72.3III ............... 535.0 460.7 81.3 18.2 63.1 379.5 151.6 85.1 27.3 47.2 68.3 74.2IV ............... 560.3 485.2 80.0 20.0 60.0 405.3 166.2 90.8 28.6 47.8 71.8 75.01995: I ................. 572.6 487.5 93.9 21.7 72.2 393.6 170.3 84.2 22.8 42.5 73.8 85.1II ................ 595.5 502.3 104.2 22.5 81.6 398.1 176.9 84.0 21.2 41.9 74.1 93.2III ............... 637.4 553.9 116.0 22.4 93.6 438.0 193.0 89.3 29.7 43.5 82.4 83.4IV ............... 646.5 550.0 104.4 22.1 82.4 445.6 195.4 86.3 31.1 45.3 87.6 96.41996: I ................. 667.0 574.4 116.5 21.6 94.9 457.9 191.6 89.6 35.6 49.7 91.3 92.6II ................ 677.1 583.7 116.6 21.7 95.0 467.0 195.0 96.2 31.9 52.5 91.4 93.5III ............... 683.0 589.4 111.7 21.8 89.9 477.7 197.3 93.9 37.7 53.8 95.1 93.6IV ............... 688.7 582.8 98.0 22.1 76.0 484.8 198.6 91.3 46.3 51.2 97.3 105.91997: I ................. 720.5 624.0 127.7 22.6 105.1 496.3 200.8 89.8 48.3 60.8 96.6 96.4II ................ 740.1 634.7 128.7 23.0 105.8 506.0 215.5 87.0 50.5 59.1 93.8 105.4III ............... 763.7 661.4 128.6 23.6 105.0 532.8 228.9 88.3 52.7 62.7 100.1 102.3IV ............... 740.7 648.7 134.7 24.1 110.6 514.0 212.3 88.6 47.6 62.2 103.4 92.01998: I ................. 744.3 645.8 136.3 24.5 111.8 509.4 197.1 91.7 51.5 67.4 101.8 98.6II ................ 731.3 633.9 134.4 24.4 110.0 499.5 194.6 87.5 53.5 67.4 96.5 97.3III ............... 732.1 642.2 133.2 24.7 108.5 509.0 195.0 92.7 53.9 67.1 100.2 89.91Consists of the following industries: Depository institutions; nondepository credit institutions; security and commodity brokers; insurancecarriers; regulated investment companies; small business investment companies; and real estate investment trusts.2See Table B–92 for industry detail.Note.—The industry classification is on a company basis and is based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) beginning 1987,and on the 1972 SIC for earlier years shown.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of <strong>Economic</strong> Analysis.432
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EconomicReportof thePresidentTransm
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C O N T E N T SPageECONOMIC REPORT
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Once we have saved Social Security,
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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C O N T E N T SPageCHAPTER 1. MEETI
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PageCHAPTER 5. REGULATION AND INNOV
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Page2-3. Accounting for Growth in R
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Page6-5. Terms of Trade ...........
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CHAPTER 1Meeting Challenges and Bui
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Box 1-1.—The Dating of Business C
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Chart 1-1 Core Inflation and Unempl
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expansion prematurely. In fact, the
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the duration of the typical unemplo
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throughout that decade of peace and
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all individuals aged 65 and older r
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extent that it would reduce Social
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the vulnerability of the internatio
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access. Even so, international agre
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eliminated entirely, because the go
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Nevertheless, adjustment assistance
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CHAPTER 2Macroeconomic Policyand Pe
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Then the chapter explores two other
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target Federal funds rate brought t
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high of 66.8 percent in the third q
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the third-quarter deceleration and
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(that is, excluding food and energy
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probably would have increased by ab
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Equities clearly involve risk as we
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highest level in at least 40 years
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attributed to the lesser liquidity
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971231 980106 980112 980116 980122
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about the potential impact of large
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With respect to leverage, the degre
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noted earlier, investment-grade bor
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Chart 2-8 Corporate Profits and Net
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is attributable to the strong econo
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productivity; the latter is in turn
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the year 2000, mistaking it instead
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Box 2-2.—continuedare not expecte
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construct an accurate forecasting m
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is estimated as the location where
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the recent surge in productivity re
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Box 2-3.—continuedhowever. Import
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Chart 2-12 Three Measures of Core I
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a level of capacity utilization tha
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Box 2-4.—continuedChanges to be i
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Nonfarm manufacturing and trade inv
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has been for the past 3 years. But
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who have traditionally not fared as
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Box 3-1.—continuedas well as full
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and been replaced by younger, more
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Particularly interesting, however,
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Chart 3-5 Median Hourly Wages of Me
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In fact, in 1990 immigrants and nat
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Box 3-2.—continuedsome firms may
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Box 3-3.—continuedmaximum of $3,7
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willing to hire welfare recipients
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participation. The renewed increase
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TANF grants in reserve at the Treas
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JOB DISPLACEMENTWorkers are conside
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evidence finds that the percentage
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their non-labor market activities.
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The Administration is especially co
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CHAPTER 4Work, Retirement, and theE
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Chart 4-1 Life Expectancy at Age 65
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Population aging is not just an Ame
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Box 4-1.—continuedfor couples and
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earlier retirement, by increasing l
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uyouts may also have contributed to
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Box 4-2.—Social Security RulesThe
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available with the same hourly pay,
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Box 4-4.—Types of Pension PlansUn
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worker—declined. More of these ol
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survey) was about 13 percent higher
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well-being is that families have di
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Chart 4-9 Living Arrangements of El
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mentioned earlier in this chapter a
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Box 4-7.—The Federal Role in Empl
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inequality among retirees who have
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whether minorities and women are li
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TABLE 4-4.—Poverty Rates Among th
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TABLE 4-6.—Family Holdings of Fin
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variety of reasons, including the f
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the number of patents granted in th
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The United States has a decades-lon
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matter, depending on various condit
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company Roche Holdings, Ltd. Some o
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The antitrust authorities’ linkin
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espective Writings and Discoveries.
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Box 5-3.—Cooperative Innovation a
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machine owned by another. The disti
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companies begin to offer DSL servic
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and compete for customers on the ba
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In another part of the Internet mar
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technology at hand. But incentive-b
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the flexibility to choose lower cos
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In contrast to both performance and
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The SO 2 experience reveals several
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Box 5-7.—The Partnership for a Ne
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Consumers’ investment in energy e
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clean-energy projects in developing
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Chart 5-2 Energy Efficiency and Pri
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equipment, and more than 90 percent
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Box 5-9.—Is There an Environmenta
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larger coal plants. In 1994 these t
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around the country, and seven other
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other social goals. The fund would
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greater opportunity, faster growth,
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Chart 6-1 Net Capital Flows to Deve
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Box 6-1.—The Explosive Growth of
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Recent Financial LiberalizationIn m
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and investment (although openness t
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Box 6-2.—Market-Based (Arm’s-Le
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conditionality in the face of unsou
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Box 6-4.—Sovereign Spreads in Eme
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social safety nets in the crisis co
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Box 6-5.—Moral Hazard in Financia
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Empirical studies confirm that, by
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withdrew $26 billion in 1997. Altho
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America, and these linkages partly
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8.5 percent of GDP in 1998. Indones
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sary revenues to meet these extra i
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which is considered a monetary asse
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ates at home, they sought higher re
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Chart 6-3 Real Value of the Dollar
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The increase in the trade deficit a
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Chart 6-6 Current Account BalanceTh
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Chart 6-7 Economic Growth and Trade
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investment. The U.S. gross investme
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Chart 6-10 Current Account Deficit
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with other countries to strengthen
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REFORM OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCI
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about their macroeconomic and finan
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decisions respond to market signals
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Other measures recommended by the w
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ADOPTION OF MEASURES TO REFORM THEI
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Another way to improve global surve
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Issues Posed by Hedge Funds and Oth
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the best investment opportunities,
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egulation of inflows to banks alone
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complement the role of official fin
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emerging markets will take time to
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Box 7-1.—continuedpartner; a stro
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Chart 7-1 European Short-Term Inter
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members agreed in a separate Growth
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Box 7-2.—continuedthrough an auto
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advantages of EMU to U.S. residents
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Box 7-3.—How Does the Dollar Rank
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connection between the currency in
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as an economic superpower early in
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Appendix AREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Chair and Members work as a tea
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countries. The Council heads the U.
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Chief of Staff and General CounselM
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affiliations. They are Christopher
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C O N T E N T SNATIONAL INCOME OR E
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B-71. Aggregate reserves of deposit
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General NotesDetail in these tables
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TABLE B-1.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
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TABLE B-4.—Percent changes in rea
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TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
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TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
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TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
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TABLE B-9.—Real gross domestic pr
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Year orquarterGrossdomesticproductT
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YearBased on1972 SIC:TABLE B-13.—
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TABLE B-15.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-17.—Real personal consump
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TABLE B-19.—Real private gross fi
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TABLE B-21.—Real government consu
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TABLE B-23.—Real inventories and
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TABLE B-25.—Real exports and impo
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TABLE B-27.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-28.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-29.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-31.—Total and per capita
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TABLE B-32.—Gross saving and inve
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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TABLE B-35.—Civilian population a
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TABLE B-37.—Civilian employment b
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TABLE B-39.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-41.—Civilian employment/p
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TABLE B-43.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-45.—Unemployment insuranc
Page 376 and 377: TABLE B-46.—Employees on nonagric
Page 378 and 379: TABLE B-48.—Employment cost index
Page 380 and 381: Year orquarterTABLE B-50.—Changes
Page 382 and 383: Year or monthTABLE B-52.—Industri
Page 384 and 385: TABLE B-54.—Capacity utilization
Page 386 and 387: Year or monthTABLE B-56.—New hous
Page 388 and 389: TABLE B-58.—Manufacturers’ ship
Page 390 and 391: PRICESTABLE B-60.—Consumer price
Page 392 and 393: TABLE B-61.—Consumer price indexe
Page 394 and 395: TABLE B-63.—Changes in special co
Page 396 and 397: TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 402 and 403: YearandmonthMONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AN
Page 404 and 405: TABLE B-70.—Components of money s
Page 406 and 407: TABLE B-72.—Bank credit at all co
Page 408 and 409: TABLE B-73.—Bond yields and inter
Page 410 and 411: TABLE B-74.—Credit market borrowi
Page 412 and 413: TABLE B-76.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 414 and 415: GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-78.—Fed
Page 416 and 417: TABLE B-80.—Federal receipts and
Page 418 and 419: TABLE B-82.—Federal Government re
Page 420 and 421: TABLE B-84.—Federal and State and
Page 422 and 423: TABLE B-86.—State and local gover
Page 424 and 425: TABLE B-88.—Maturity distribution
Page 428 and 429: TABLE B-92.—Corporate profits of
Page 430 and 431: TABLE B-94.—Relation of profits a
Page 432 and 433: Year or monthTABLE B-96.—Business
Page 434 and 435: End of yearTotalassetsTABLE B-98.
Page 436 and 437: YearFarm population,April 1Number(t
Page 438 and 439: YearTABLE B-102.—U.S. exports and
Page 440 and 441: TABLE B-103.—U.S. international t
Page 442 and 443: TABLE B-105.—U.S. international t
Page 444 and 445: TABLE B-107.—International invest
Page 446 and 447: TABLE B-109.—Civilian unemploymen
Page 448 and 449: TABLE B-111.—International reserv
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