Paradox

PASCAL’S IMPROBABLE CALCULATIONS 229that clothed his corpse: “FIRE. God of Abraham, God of Isaac,God of Jacob, not of the philosophers or of the learned.Certainty. Certainty. Feeling, Joy, Peace. . . . Total Submissionto Jesus Christ and to my director. Eternally in joy for one dayof exercise on earth. . . . ” Following that November morning,Pascal withdrew from scientific research and devoted himselfto religious activities.Blaise Pascal retained an interest in converting his libertineacquaintances to Christianity. In his Pensées, Pascal arguesthat, from a nonbeliever’s perspective, it is prudent to acquire abelief in God: There is at least an outside chance that God exists.The implications are tremendous because God rewards believerswith heaven and punishes unbelievers with hell. Since anyfraction of the infinite is itself infinite, the expected value oftheism is infinite. However much finite good accrues fromsecular living, the religious life is infinitely more prudent.If belief were voluntary, as Descartes assumed, then theissue is simply a matter of deciding what to believe. Butincentives for a belief do not directly cause beliefs in the waythat evidence does. I hereby offer you a hundred dollars tobelieve that this book will ignite in ten seconds. Now you havea reason to believe this book will ignite. However, thisincentive is not the sort of reason that makes you believe thatthis book will ignite. To believe, you need a reason that bearson the truth of the proposition that this book will ignite. Soeven if Pascal has given you a reason that you should believethat God exists (by pointing out the incentive of heaven), hehas not given you the sort of reason (evidence) that producesbelief that God exists.Pascal’s Pensées contains remarks that show the wager isnot derailed by the distinction between incentives and evidence.He advises the libertine to indirectly acquire a belief