THE POLITICS OF IMMIGRATION

Labour appears to have won ethnic minority votes in the wrong
places to make a difference in electoral terms, advancing in safe seats while
slipping in marginals. The Runnymede Trust notes that around half of the
ethnic minority population lives in seats that are more than one-third
ethnic minority, while half do not. In the most ethnically diverse seats the
Labour vote went up, as it did in other Labour heartland safe seats. Yet the
Conservatives were particularly successful in targeting voters in marginal
constituencies – and appear to have become increasingly confident of
competing for the growing number of ethnic minority votes in marginals
with middling levels of ethnic diversity, particularly in areas where voters
have felt the benefits of economic recovery.
In Watford, where a quarter of voters are non-white, the
Conservative vote was up nine per cent, turning a three-way marginal in
2010 into a majority of nearly 10,000. The growing Conservative vote in
increasingly ethnically mixed towns, such as Bedford, Crawley, Milton
Keynes, Reading, Swindon and Wycombe, suggests a similar story – with
the Conservatives able to find more than enough new voters to outweigh
those who deserted the party for UKIP.
Up for grabs: the increasing ethnic minority floating
vote
This evidence of long-awaited Conservative progress with ethnic
minority voters has been greeted with cautious optimism by party
strategists and thinkers, though warnings against complacency are equally
common. The Survation poll findings suggest that they should be heeded.
The Conservatives were successful in advancing with ethnic minority
voters, as those who preferred David Cameron as Prime Minister and didn’t
want to risk the economic recovery found themselves following that logic
to a Conservative vote. The poll suggests that these may often have been
‘Cameron voters’ as much as Conservative voters, and that the party has
further work to do if it is to retain these votes or extend its appeal among
minority voters.
Most ethnic minority voters who backed the Conservatives in
2015 say they might not do so again in future. 54% of those who voted
Conservative in 2015 say they could well change their minds in future, while
17% disagree. 47% of Labour ethnic minority voters say they could change
their minds, while 32% disagree.
There is also scope for the Conservatives to expand their
support further. 29% of ethnic minority voters who did not support the
Conservatives say that they considered doing so in 2015.
Overall, however, the Labour party appears to have a stronger core of
committed support and a bigger pool in which to fish for future votes. 48%
of minority voters who didn’t vote Labour would consider doing so. Labour
may also still be trying harder at grassroots level: a majority 52% say that
Labour contacted them during the 2015 campaign, while 40% recall contact
from the Conservatives.
Most ethnic minority Britons (54%) believe that the Labour party
tries to treat people from all ethnic backgrounds fairly – but only 29%
currently say that is true of the Conservative Party. For Conservatives,
continuing to shift this perception is likely to be crucial to expanding the
party’s potential support.
38 British Future / The Politics of Immigration