THE POLITICS OF IMMIGRATION

The Survation findings for British Future show that a majority
of voters at the end of the campaign feel that UKIP was both too loud
and too divisive; that the party was not firm enough on keeping extreme
voices out; and that it talked too much about immigration and too little
about the other issues facing Britain.
Almost everywhere that UKIP hoped to win a seat, its candidates
hit a “purple ceiling” of one in three votes. The sole exception was
Douglas Carswell in Clacton, whose more optimistic and inclusive vision
of what the party should stand for, together with his local popularity,
secured a broader appeal and a seat in Parliament.
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So what are the lessons of the 2015 General
Election for the politics of immigration?
The public politics of immigration are more complex than most
people think. Immigration is a big issue – but it isn’t necessarily going
to trump issues like the economy or political leadership in a General
Election or a referendum on the EU.
Immigration is also a polarising issue, because there are two large
minorities of voters with opposing instincts about immigration. While
most voters are somewhere in between, none of the parties has yet spoken
confidently to this public desire for politics to find the common ground.
In this report, we look at the challenges facing politics as a whole
in restoring trust on immigration, and why parties across the political
spectrum face significant challenges to engage the public and secure
support for their respective approaches.
The findings cast doubt on the prevailing view in both major
parties that talking about immigration in an election will be ‘all pain and
no gain’ and hence best avoided. Staying quiet on one of the three most
salient issues for voters is a risky strategy - one that is likely to corrode
public trust and push anxious voters towards populist options just to get
the issue on the agenda.
It is also an unsustainable approach. The Conservative attempt to
avoid highlighting immigration during the 2015 campaign was assisted
by a considerable degree of cooperation from newspapers sympathetic
to David Cameron’s re-election effort, despite dissatisfaction with his
immigration record. It’s already very clear that this stance is not going to
continue now the election campaign is over.
After a surprisingly quiet election, immigration is back in the
headlines. Just weeks after he faced sharp criticism over rising net
migration figures, the Prime Minister was under pressure to offer
protection to more refugees fleeing the war in Syria – demonstrating the
nuance within public opinion on different forms of migration. The wider
refugee crisis across Europe, including in Calais, remains unresolved, as
does David Cameron’s net migration headache. Free movement will be
a central issue in the EU referendum debate, and the EU reform debate
that will precede it, not least because it is currently one of the only ways
that most people feel any tangible impact of Britain being in the EU.
6 British Future / The Politics of Immigration