THE POLITICS OF IMMIGRATION

Did immigration decide
the election?
Immigration looked set to be one of the decisive issues in the 2015
General Election.
UKIP’s dramatic victory in the 2014 European election, after a
campaign focused predominantly on immigration, was followed by highprofile
defections to the party and by-election victories, keeping Nigel
Farage’s party in the headlines. David Cameron’s net migration target, and
his failure to meet it, ensured that voters received a regular reminder of
the issue every three months when the ONS published new immigration
statistics. New crackdowns and tougher measures, announced each
quarter in response to the figures, only heightened the public’s sense
that the Government hadn’t got a grip. Ahead of the general election
campaign, immigration polled consistently in the top three issues that
voters cared most about, alongside the economy and the NHS.
One look at the newspaper headlines today reveals that the issue
has not gone away. Net migration was back with a vengeance in May, and
again in August when it reached record levels. The refugee crisis across
Europe, and closer to home in Calais, has brought asylum back into the
public debate – both positively, in the public’s humanitarian response
to the Syrian refugee crisis, and negatively, with migrants referred to as
‘swarms’ and even as ‘cockroaches’.
Yet during the election campaign itself, much of the public debate
on immigration fell strangely silent. Offered an opportunity to put their
views and policies on immigration to the nation, most politicians kept
their heads down. The exception was UKIP, who maintained their focus
on the issue - but most of the public didn’t like what they had to say. Nigel
Farage’s polarising rhetoric proved unpalatable to most of the public, who
hold more nuanced views. For the duration of the election campaign,
immigration had a much lower profile – and less of an impact on the result
– than many had anticipated.
* * *
The Conservatives won a majority victory despite the party’s record
and reputation on immigration. With David Cameron’s flagship policy of
reducing net migration in tatters, Conservative strategists succeeded in
reducing the profile of immigration as an election issue, focusing instead
on economic recovery, leadership and security in uncertain times.
This proved highly successful in winning the votes that the
Conservatives needed, exactly where they needed them. So the
conventional wisdom - that David Cameron’s party had no chance of a
majority, or perhaps of retaining office at all, if UKIP’s “revolt on the
right” was not squeezed below 10% - was proved wrong.
Partly, UKIP took votes from all parties, not just the Conservatives.
What has been less noticed in post-election analysis is how much David
Cameron had to broaden the tent and win new voters to secure his
majority. Up to 3 million people who had not voted Conservative in 2010,
including many ex-Lib Dems and an increasing share of ethnic minority
4 British Future / The Politics of Immigration