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Amazonas state” (Rojas 2016). The Amazonas is one of the largest, but sparsely populated, states within the country. This move prevented the MUD from obtaining a super majority in the National Assembly. Efforts by the TSJ and Maduro to maintain control of the Assembly have not stopped there. During the election campaigns for the Assembly, one of the key campaigning points of the MUD was passing an Amnesty Law. The law “would benefit high-profile government adversaries including Leopoldo Lopez, who was arrested in 2014 on accusations that he helped spur a wave of demonstrations that ultimately left more than 40 people dead” (Ellsworth 2016). The Assembly indeed approved an amnesty law; however, Maduro can seek to have the law reviewed by the TSJ, which has repeatedly sided with the President against the Assembly. Accordingly, the TSJ ruled that the piece of legislature was unconstitutional, stating that it allowed for impunity. Recent Developments According to the Venezuelan Constitution, there are only six ways the President can be removed from office. The last of these is the most discussed: a recall referendum, which relies solely on the opinion of the citizens. This process has been started by the opposition members in the Assembly, attempting to uphold the promises made during their campaign. After collecting the signatures of over 1 percent of registered voters, the opposition then has to collect signatures of over 20 percent of the registered voters in order to trigger a referendum. Lastly, in order to be successful, the referendum has 72 hours to collect more than 7.5 million supporters. In order for the referendum to succeed, the opposition must collect more supporters than the voters who backed Maduro in the 2013 presidential election (Anon. 2016a). The first step in this process has already been taken, and succeeded in collecting three times the amount of signatures needed in order to initiate the referendum. The National Electoral Board will then verify the signatures and approve the next step. For the opposition, the most crucial aspect of this process is time. If the recall is successful within the first four years of the term, new elections will be held. On the other hand, if Maduro is recalled within the last two years of his term, the vice president would then act as the serving president, postponing the change of government for another two years (Anon. 2016b). Allegedly, the second step within the recall process has been achieved. On June 20, it was reported by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE), that the recall has collected 1.97 million signatures. However, the CNE had already disregarded 600,000 signatures during the validation process (Anon. 2016c). Although this would still account for the necessary number of signatures, the opposition continues to face its biggest challenge with time constraints. Analysis Due to the worsening economic situation in Venezuela, the opposition coalition is gaining support. Venezuelans across the nation have disputed the Amnesty law, but there is widespread despair as the country has faced shortages of basic food items, medicine, staple goods, work, education, and even electricity. Venezuela is also home to one of the highest inflation rates in the world, a factor that has pushed some to support the MUD simply because they want 20
change (Anon. 2016b). The country currently lacks items such as bread, toilet paper, and medicine, creating difficulties for daily life. Bread is one of the more prominent examples: it can take hours of waiting in line just for a single loaf, and even that is usually purchased at an inflated price. Additionally, the country sits on some of the largest energy reserves in the world; however, Venezuela choses to rely heavily on hydropower. Unfortunately, it is facing a serious drought caused by tropical storm El Niño that has cut the Venezuelan work week from five days down to two days in order to conserve energy. It is possible that the desperate conditions of the country may drive those with diverging opinions on President Maduro to side with the opposition MUD. The recall referendum may be a historic turnaround for Venezuela. If the MUD is successful in ousting the PSUV, the nature of the country, and the daily lives of its citizens, may well be transformed. The current administration has taken numerous steps to silence the opposition press. An example of this can be seen in the involvement of pro-Maduro business groups that have reportedly been involved in the purchase of the television station Globovision, and daily newspapers El Universal, El Mundo, and Ultimas Noticias. As the state-owned media has grown, the private media has disappeared. The late Hugo Chavez took the same actions in shutting down RCTV, which challenged Chavez’s popularity, as that was the first year Chavez had lost the popular vote on constitutional reform. Maduro may follow in suit with a decrease in popularity due to the growing numbers of private media that are being closed. That will prove significant in determining if a recall referendum will be successful. According to the Election Guide produced by USAID, there was an approximate 70 percent voter turnout in the December elections for the National Assembly. Of the 13.6 million votes cast, 7.72 million were in favor of the MUD (USAID 2016). If this is repeated in the recall referendum, it will be 200,000 votes more than needed in order for the effort to be successful. Conclusion President Maduro won the 2013 election by a small margin, which deems the recall referendum slightly closer in reach. It can be stated with high confidence that the recall referendum will achieve the appropriate number of votes in order to oust Maduro. However, it can also be stated with high confidence that the current administration will do whatever is necessary to slow down the process, and increase the likelihood of keeping the PSUV in Miraflores. References Cited Anonymous (2016a) “7 Key Facts About Venezuela’s Presidential Recall Referendum”, TeleSur, 28 April accessed on 28 April 2016. Anonymous (2016b) “Venezuela Crisis: Opposition Claims Big Win in Push to Recall Maduro”, BBC News, 28 April accessed on 28 April 2016. Anonymous (2016c) “Venezuela Begins Validating Recall Referendum Signatures”, Telesur, 20 June accessed on 20 June 2016. Ellsworth, B. (2016) “Venezuela Parliament Approves Amnesty Law, Maduro Vows to Veto”, Reuters, 30 March accessed on 25 April 2016. 21
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