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The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |

This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.

This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.

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During the early stages of the group’s existence, the beliefs of its members focused on anti-<br />

Semitism and racism, of which many current African-American members of the Sovereign<br />

Citizens movement appear to be unaware. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, in<br />

the 1980s the movement attracted large numbers of anti-Semites and white supremacists because<br />

“sovereign theories originated in groups that saw Jews as working behind the scenes to manipulate<br />

financial institutions and control the government” (Anon. n.d.). Today the movement propagates<br />

the erroneous theory that a type of “common law” was put in place by America’s founding<br />

fathers, but was subsequently replaced by a different legal code through a secret conspiracy of<br />

government bureaucrats. <strong>The</strong> latter, claim the Sovereign Citizens, has turned what used to be<br />

free people into slaves, and is enabling “secret government forces [that] have a vested interest<br />

in keeping them that way” (Anon. n.d.).<br />

<strong>The</strong> Federal Bureau of Investigation has classified the Sovereign Citizens as a “domestic<br />

terrorist movement”. According to the Bureau, its members “operate as individuals without<br />

established leadership and only come together in loosely affiliated groups to train, help each<br />

other with paperwork, or socialize and talk about their ideology” (FBI 2011). Moreover, the<br />

group serves as an umbrella movement that has given birth to a host of smaller far-right groups<br />

in recent years. Examples of such groups are the Oath Keepers, the Pacific Patriots Network,<br />

the 3 Percenters, and the Citizens for Constitutional Freedom —also referred to as the “Bundy<br />

Group”. <strong>The</strong>se groups do not share the same degree of extremist beliefs, and have been known<br />

to disagree with each other’s views and tactics.<br />

<strong>The</strong> Oregon Standoff<br />

On January 2, 2016, brothers Ammon and Ryan Bundy (sons of Cliven Bundy and leaders in<br />

the Bundy Group) started the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Harney<br />

Country, Oregon. It has been reported that the brothers found a ring of keys that they used<br />

to break into the federal facility when it was not staffed during the New Year holidays. <strong>The</strong><br />

occupation was aimed to protest the case of a father and son who had received a jail sentence<br />

for committing arson on public lands adjoining their ranch (Morlin 2016). Heavily armed<br />

supporters of the Bundy Group, many of them members of other militia groups (Anon. 2016c),<br />

arrived from all corners of the country including Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma<br />

and New Hampshire, to participate in the occupation (Tuohy and Ritter 2016). <strong>The</strong> Oath<br />

Keepers were also directly in<strong>vol</strong>ved in the occupation and subsequent standoff. However, unlike<br />

the Bundy group and the Pacific Patriots Network, they did not join the protests, nor did they<br />

take up arms against law enforcement and federal officials. Instead, they facilitated a partial<br />

evacuation of the women and children from the scene of the occupation following news of an<br />

armed confrontation with police on January 26 (Anon. 2016b).<br />

Earlier during the occupation, one of the Bundy brothers, Ryan Bundy, told <strong>The</strong> Oregonian<br />

newspaper that he and other armed self-described “patriots” were “willing to kill and be killed<br />

if necessary” (Morlin 2016) in defense of their beliefs. <strong>The</strong> standoff did result in one death.<br />

On February 26, Citizens for Constitutional Freedom member Robert Finicum was shot dead<br />

at a traffic stop while attempting to pull a weapon out of his coat jacket in the presence of<br />

Oregon State Police and FBI officers who had surrounded him. Along with the Bundy brothers,<br />

Finicum was part of a group of occupiers that was headed to a community meeting in a nearby<br />

town. During the stop, Ammon and Ryan Bundy were arrested. Ten other members of the<br />

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