The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |
This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.
This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.
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Will ISIS be Defeated or Grow Stronger in 2016?<br />
Grant Barratt<br />
It is stated with moderate confidence that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will not be<br />
defeated in 2016. However, ISIS’s strength will become diminished as the group continues to<br />
lose its ability to gain and control territory throughout Iraq and Syria. ISIS’s strength is<br />
measured primarily by the amount of territory the group controls, and the territory it loses.<br />
<strong>The</strong> group’s goal as a re<strong>vol</strong>utionary state is to create a caliphate, a land governed under sharia<br />
law, in the Middle East. In 2013, ISIS began a military campaign, forcefully taking swaths of<br />
land across Iraq and Syria. As of late 2015 and currently in 2016, their strength continues to<br />
decrease as they lose control of key territories in the region. It is difficult to estimate a specific<br />
span of time in which ISIS will be defeated as a state, as they continue to remain a prominent<br />
fighting force in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan. It is stated with high confidence, however,<br />
that ISIS will not become stronger in 2016.<br />
Context<br />
ISIS is becoming weaker throughout Iraq and Syria due to a variety of factors. First, the introduction<br />
of Russian military forces into Syria after September of 2015 has heavily deteriorated the ISIS<br />
presence in the country. Russian forces deployed after an official request from Bashar al-<br />
Assad, the president of Syria, who called for help to combat militant jihadist groups that are<br />
fighting against the Syrian regime. Since that time, Russian fighter jets and bombers have<br />
continuously targeted ISIS throughout Syria to allow Syrian ground forces to regain key strongholds,<br />
such as the ancient city of Palmyra. Russia also has deployed helicopters, tanks, naval assets,<br />
and ground forces into Syria.<br />
Another factor that is contributing to ISIS’s weakening is the international coalition led by the<br />
United States (US) through Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). OIR is an air campaign tasked<br />
with destroying ISIS, and in recent months has rapidly increased the number of airstrikes<br />
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