The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |

conducted against ISIS targets (US Department of Defense). Along with an increased number
of airstrikes, the US and its coalition appear to be shifting targeting strategies in order to heavily
impact ISIS’s infrastructure. These targets include sources of oil revenue, cash houses, and
water supply facilities (Gordon and Schmitt 2015). In addition, the US has deployed a special
operations outfit, Army Delta, to Iraq and Syria to conduct kill or capture missions against
ISIS leadership (Starr 2016).
So far, these strategies seem to directly impact ISIS’s strength. In 2015 and 2016, ISIS lost a
large portion of its territory in Iraq and Syria, which evidently led to loss of income. On a caseby-case
basis, these territories were taken from ISIS by Syrian-Russian alliance forces, Kurdish
Peshmerga forces, or Iraqi Security Forces with the help of US air support. Cities and territories
gained back from ISIS include: Kobane, Ramadi, parts of Fallujah, al-Qaryatain, and Palmyra.
The loss of these territories resulted in ISIS only holding on to two strategic strongholds which
are Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria (Dearden 2015).
In addition to losing a large portion of its territory, ISIS’s leadership has been effectively
targeted by the international military effort. This has impacted ISIS’s ability to organize and
command forces. In 2015, ISIS’s leadership was heavily targeted through US drone strikes, as
well as by Special Forces raids aiming to kill or capture leaders ranging from military
commanders to chemical weapons engineers (Hall 2015). One example of such high-profile
targeting is the killing of Abu Muslim Al-Turkmani, who was considered ISIS’s second in
command and governor of ISIS controlled territories. The US confirmed he was killed by an
airstrike in 2015 somewhere near the city of Mosul (Sanchez 2015). Another ISIS leader and
trusted member of the ISIS cabinet, Abu Abdulrahman al-Bilawi, was also killed outside of
Mosul from an airstrike in 2015 (Tomson 2016).
It is estimated that, due to the massive loss of territory, ISIS will revert to committing
international attacks against soft targets in order to maintain their legitimacy. Examples of ISIS
lashing out directly after losing territory include the downing of a Russian jet liner in October
of 2015 and the Paris attacks carried out in November of 2015, following the loss of Ramadi
in Iraq. This could result in ISIS adopting an al-Qaeda-like strategy that includes large-scale
international attacks over time (Hashim 2014). This seems to be ironic as the al-Qaeda strategy
was originally denounced by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the current leader and commander of
ISIS, as leading to the split between the two groups. However, this comes as a direct result of
ISIS losing its ability to hold ground against the mounting offenses launched by Russia, the
US, Iraq forces, Kurdish Peshmerga, and Syrian troops.
As ISIS continues to lose territory and infrastructure, more defectors are reaching out to
describe what life is actually like inside ISIS’s caliphate. Multiple defectors have stated that
ISIS’s strength is diminished and fighter morale is at a minimum. This is heavily due to
increased pressure on their sources of revenue, including oil infrastructure, cash houses, and
weapons storage. As of April 2016, it is estimated that ISIS has lost over $800 million in cash
just from targeted airstrikes of their treasury warehouses (Anon. 2016). In the beginning, ISIS
fighters were offered a salary and benefits. Defectors now claim that the group is unable to
pay for basic necessities, such as food and water. In addition, they claim it is now extremely
difficult for ISIS to have recruits gain access to Syria and Iraq due to increased border security
in surrounding countries. This has led ISIS to encourage recruits to travel to Libya, or carry
out attacks in their home countries. (Freytas-Tamura 2015).
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