The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |
This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.
This volume is the product of a collaboration between the European Intelligence Academy (EIA) and the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB), a student-run initiative supported by the Department of Politics at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, United States. Eleven CIB analysts tackle some of the most pressing and timely questions confronting intelligence observers today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other pressing subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts that outline future developments in some of the world's most unpredictable hot spots.
- No tags were found...
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
How Likely is a Military Coup in North Korea in<br />
2016?<br />
Ryan Haag<br />
Based upon historical and contemporary events, regional geopolitics, and the leadership<br />
dynamics inside the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), it can be stated with<br />
moderate confidence that a military coup in the DPRK is unlikely through 2016. A military<br />
coup refers to the peaceful or violent removal of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un by military<br />
personnel of the DPRK.<br />
Discussion<br />
Pioneered by Kim Il-sung and established as the official ideology of the DPRK in 1972, the<br />
key driver of domestic affairs in the country is juche philosophy (Lee 2003:105). North Korean<br />
citizens living under juche are “from an early age [...] subject to race-based nationalist<br />
indoctrination and taught that however arduous life is inside of [the DPRK], the outside world<br />
is all the more perilous” (Kourdi 2012:30). <strong>The</strong> concept of self-sufficiency is also pervasive<br />
and supported through constant propaganda. This mentality carries over into the military,<br />
particularly among the non-elites in the military, who receive little outside information to<br />
contradict juche. Since every male is required to serve in the military, their social classification,<br />
or songbun, determines their specific post. <strong>The</strong> lower echelon of songbun in the military, known<br />
as the ‘hostile’ class, constantly deals with malnutrition while working on construction and<br />
agricultural projects (Collins 2012:59-65). Consequently, without the energy, resources, or<br />
organization that allows them to mobilize, those within the hostile class are highly unlikely to<br />
stage a coup.<br />
27
Change language