The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |

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controls, the more the Schengen Area is at risk of failing. France issued temporary border controls after the November 2015 Paris attacks. Other Schengen Treaty member states who have recently closed their borders due to the migrant crisis include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway, and Sweden (Migration and Home Affairs 2016). These temporary border controls pose considerable threats to the future of the Schengen Area. That being said, I do not believe these threats will warrant the abolishment of the Schengen Treaty. The Schengen Area was originally created to improve economic cooperation and profitability for European countries. Abolishing the passport free travel area would hit Europe with a massive economic blow. France Strategie, a think-tank directly attached to Office of the French Prime Minister, stated this year that “a permanent return to frontier controls in Europe would cost countries in the Schengen open-borders area about 110 billion euros over the next decade” (Rose 2016). The report goes on to describe how the reintroduction of full border controls would be equivalent to a 3 percent tax on trade between countries in the Schengen area, which would lead to a structural decline in trade of 10 to 20 percent (Rose 2016). The costs would mainly come from the tourism sector, cross-border workers, and freight transport. This report was clearly issued to show the long-term economic consequences of abolishing the Schengen Area. Schengen member-state leaders will look at the numbers and realize that closing the Schengen Area is not an economically smart solution. The economic impact is definitely a main reason why the Schengen Area will not be abolished in 2016. The bigger of the two problems threatening the Schengen Area is the migrant crisis. Greece has been hit particularly hard by this. The majority of migrants from Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, travel by sea from Turkey to Greece, where they attempt to continue on their journey to countries further into Europe. Over 800,000 migrants arrived in Greece in 2015, many of them arrived illegally (Anon. 2015). For a long time, Greece was not completely fulfilling its duties in securing the external border of the Schengen Area, causing other members to close their borders. The European Commission told Athens in February of this year that it needed to: improve screening and disembarkation procedures; increase its capacity to document and house asylum-seekers; and build detention facilities (European Commission 2016). In April, an EU executive said Greece had made significant progress in securing its border (Anon. 2016a). Greece has been working to improve on all the areas the EU has indicated, and its borders are becoming more secure. These steps are only increasing the safety of the Schengen Area, as a crucial external border becomes increasingly safe, thus ensuring the survival of the treaty. The biggest step taken so far in resolving the migrant crisis, which would in turn help save the Schengen Area, has been the EU-Turkey deal. Under the deal, migrants arriving illegally in Greece after March 20, 2016, are expected to be sent back to Turkey if they do not apply for asylum or if their claim is rejected. For each Syrian migrant returned to Turkey, the EU is due to take in another Syrian who has made a legitimate request (Anon. 2016b). Turkey also gets many other benefits from this agreement, and so far it has had a major impact in slowing down migrants entering Europe. This deal, along with the western Balkan route effectively being shut down due to temporary border controls, has reduced significantly the amount of migrants entering Europe. This gives the EU more time to come up with a permanent solution for the migrant crisis, and essentially saves the Schengen Area from collapsing from the migrant crisis for now. 52
Conclusion Throughout the last four months my forecast that the Schengen Area would not collapse has persisted. When looking at the economic consequences of a potential abolition of the treaty, Greece securing their external border, and the success of the EU-Turkey deal, it can still be stated with high confidence that the Schengen Treaty will not be abolished in 2016. It would not be entirely surprising to start seeing the gradual lifting of some of the current temporary border controls, sometime towards the end of this year. The Schengen Treaty will survive for the immediate future, as it is too beneficial to fail. I believe that it will only become stronger in the coming years, and that a new member or two may even be joining the passport-free travel area soon. References Cited Anonymous (2015) “Migrant crisis: Over one million reach Europe by sea”, BBC, 30 December accessed on 29 April 2016. Anonymous (2016a) “EU: Greece made progress on borders, but more needed”, Times of Change, 12 April accessed on 29 April 2016. Anonymous (2016b) “Migrant crisis: EU-Turkey deal comes into effect”, BBC, 20 March accessed on 29 April 2016. Europa (n.d) “The EU in Brief”, The EU, Brussels, Belgium , accessed on 29 April 2016. European Commission (2008) “The Schengen Area”, EU, Brussels, Belgium. European Commission (2016) “Back to Schengen – A Roadmap”, EU, Brussels, Belgium. Migration and Home Affairs (2016) “Temporary Reintroduction of Border Controls”, The EU, Brussels, Belgium , accessed on 29 April 2016. Rose, M. (2016) “End to Schengen deal would cost Europe 110 billion euros - French adviser”, Reuters, 3 February accessed on 29 April 2016. 53
Page 1 and 2: • Will ISIS be defeated or grow s
Page 3 and 4: • Will ISIS be defeated or grow s
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Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents Foreword page 09
Page 9 and 10: Foreword The Research Institute for
Page 11 and 12: Introduction Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis
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Page 15 and 16: Will There be Major Pro-Russian Unr
Page 17 and 18: Conclusion The NATO status of the B
Page 19 and 20: Will the United Socialist Party of
Page 21 and 22: change (Anon. 2016b). The country c
Page 23 and 24: Will the Per-Barrel Price of Oil Co
Page 25 and 26: Every country has its own interest
Page 27 and 28: How Likely is a Military Coup in No
Page 29 and 30: At the same time, current internati
Page 31 and 32: Will ISIS be Defeated or Grow Stron
Page 33 and 34: Conclusion Over the past few months
Page 35 and 36: Will There Be a Peace Treaty Betwee
Page 37 and 38: On April 12, 2016, the Taliban issu
Page 39 and 40: Will Iraq Edge Closer to Official T
Page 41 and 42: conclusion, despite the Peshmerga t
Page 43 and 44: Will Russia’s Military Involvemen
Page 45 and 46: into the meeting, Netanyahu said hi
Page 47 and 48: Will a Full-Scale Civil War Erupt i
Page 49 and 50: Conclusion President Nkurunziza has
Page 51: Will the European Union’s Schenge
Page 55 and 56: Will the US Anti-Federal Government
Page 57 and 58: occupation group were arrested on t
Page 59 and 60: Biographical Notes on Contributors
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