DT e-Paper, Saturday, 12 November, 2016

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10 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2016 DT World ANALYSIS Nuclear weapons: How foreign hotspots could test Trump’s finger on the trigger • Tribune International Desk On Donald Trump’s first day in office he will be handed the “nuclear biscuit” – a small card with the codes he would need to talk to the Pentagon war room to verify his identity in the event of a national security crisis. Some presidents have chosen to keep the “biscuit” on them, though that is not foolproof. Jimmy Carter left his in his clothes when he sent them to the dry-cleaners. Bill Clinton had it in his wallet with his credit cards, but then lost the wallet. Others have chosen to give the card to an aide to keep in a briefcase, known as the “nuclear football”, together with a manual containing US war plans for different contingencies and one on “continuity of government”, where to go to ensure executive authority survives a first nuclear strike. The “biscuit” and “football” are the embodiment of the awesome, civilisation-ending power that will be put in Trump’s hands on 20 January. They only become relevant in very rare moments of extreme crisis, but a US president’s ability to manage crises around the world will help determine whether they become extreme. There is one such situation already in the in-tray Trump will find on his desk, on the Korean peninsula, where the North Korean regime is rapidly developing a long-range nuclear missile. Another could blow up at any time with Russia, whose warplanes are flying increasingly close to Nato planes and ships in a high-stakes game of chicken. And Trump could trigger a third crisis, with Iran, if he follows through with his threat to tear up last year’s agreement curbing its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. The temperament question During the campaign, 10 former US nuclear launch officers, who once manned missile silos and held the keys necessary to execute a launch order, signed a letter saying Trump should not have his “finger on the button” because of his temperament. One of those former officers, Bruce Blair, said that if US early warning radar showed the country was under attack by nuclear missiles, there would be time for a president to receive a briefing that could be as short as 30 seconds and the commander-in-chief would then have between three and 12 minutes to make up his mind. He The world has five official “nuclear weapons states” – the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France, signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India, Pakistan and North Korea have also conducted nuclear tests, while Israel is widely believed to have the bomb NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES Number of warheads UNITED STATES* 500 RUSSIA** Sources: Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Threat Initiative would have to take into account that the early warning system had been wrong before and could be vulnerable to ever more sophisticated hacking. North Korea Kim Jong-un has accelerated testing of nuclear weapons and missiles, and most analysts believe he will reach the capability of making a miniaturised warhead that could be put on an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US west coast within Trump’s first term as president. Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, said that Pyongyang could 2,200 2,500 Strategic, operationally deployed Tactical battlefield, operationally deployed (200 in Europe) CHINA 400 Reserve (active and inactive) Strategic, 250; tactical, 150 seize the opportunity of presidential transition to test Trump’s mettle. “I am worried about the people Trump is going to put in charge on that file,” Kimball said. “He is facing a very empty bench. Many of the Republican foreign policy establishment are ‘never-Trumpers’, and the North Korea problem is not going to wait.” Trump has offered to talk to Kim, offering the possibility of breaking through the diplomatic impasse that has cut off almost all engagement with the regime. But a unilateral move could unnerve US allies in the region, already anxious about Trump’s remarks during the campaign suggesting they do not 4,138 FRANCE 300 Four submarines, 60 bombers, plus carrier-based aircraft UK 200 Four submarines, each armed with up to 16 Trident missiles OTHER DECLARED NUCLEAR NATIONS Trident C-4 INDIA PAKISTAN N KOREA UNDECLARED ISRAEL 100 30-50 8 est. 100-200 * Excludes 4,200 retired warheads of which 350 are dismantled each year ** Excludes 8,150 reserve or awaiting dismantlement SS-N-18 missile 5,200 © GRAPHIC NEWS contribute enough to deserve the shelter of the US nuclear umbrella. Iran Trump has threatened to tear up the nuclear deal six major powers signed with Iran last year, in which Iran scaled down its nuclear programme in return for relief from international sanctions. He and other Republicans have argued that the US would get more concessions if they reapplied sanctions. “That would be a catastrophic decision,” Acton said. “The other parties to this deal would still consider themselves bound by it, whether or not the US did. If we withdrew, the Iranians would demand redress, and the other parties would be sympathetic. If you want to put pressure on Iran you need multilateral sanctions. Behaving unilaterally is very unlikely to work.” Even before taking office, Trump would be under heavy pressure from the other parties to the deal – the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – who have started investing and trading with Iran, not to deliver on his threat. Doing so could isolate the US and potentially trigger a nuclear arms race in the Gulf. Russia Trump has claimed he could improve relations with Russia, and in particular with Vladimir Putin personally, that would defuse the high tensions over Ukraine and Syria. Such deals could well be at the expense of the people of those countries, but could conceivably lessen the chances of a complete end to arms control and the return to an expensive and dangerous nuclear arms race. Hans Kristensen, a nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), points out that the deepest cuts in nuclear arsenals have been achieved by Republican administrations. “Republicans love nuclear weapons reductions, as long as they’re not proposed by a Democratic president,” Kristensen wrote on an FAS blog. “That is the lesson from decades of US nuclear weapons and arms control management. If that trend continues, then we can expect the new Donald Trump administration to reduce the US nuclear weapons arsenal more than the Obama administration did.” The current arms treaty limiting the strategic arsenals of both countries, New Start, expires in 2021. A decision will have to be made whether to replace it or let arms control wither. Both Putin and Trump could save tens of billions of dollars by cutting arsenals. As part of any deal, however, Putin would ask for the scrapping of the US missile defence system currently being erected in eastern Europe. Any concessions on the US trillion-dollar nuclear weapon modernisation programme, which Trump endorses in his transition website, would bring him in direct conflict with the Republican establishment. “I could imagine Trump personally being more flexible,” Acton said. “But it would set up a huge fight with Congress. Congress loves missile defence.” •
World 11 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2016 DT India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe applaud during a banquet hosted by Abe at Abe’s official residence in Tokyo on Friday AFP Japan, India sign controversial civil nuclear deal • AFP, Tokyo Japan and India signed a controversial civil nuclear deal on Friday that will allow Japanese companies to export atomic technology to the Asian giant as the two countries deepen economic and security ties. The pact signed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi is Japan’s first with a nation that has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). ‘The agreement is a legal framework to ensure India acts responsibly for the peaceful use of nuclear energy’ The treaty bans nations other than the five permanent members of the UN Security Council from developing and possessing nuclear weapons. Japan, the victim of US atomic bombings in the final days of World War II, had long shunned civil nuclear cooperation with energy-starved India over the NPT issue. But it has softened its stance as it competes for lucrative deals and steps up strategic cooperation with New Delhi in the face of China’s expanding economic and military presence in the region. “The agreement is a legal framework to ensure India acts responsibly for the peaceful use of nuclear energy,” Abe told reporters with Modi at his side. A Japanese official told reporters that the two nations have agreed Japan can cease cooperation if India resumes nuclear testing. “Today’s signing of the agreement for cooperation in peaceful use of nuclear energy marks a historic step in our engagement to build a clean energy partnership,” Modi said. Besides the US and Japan, India also has similar deals with France and Australia. The Asian allies have stepped up cooperation in recent years, signing agreements last December on the transfer of defence equipment and technology and on exchanging classified military information. The nuclear deal comes against the backdrop of growing unease over China’s expanding role in the region. India has a longstanding territorial dispute with China, and troops from the two countries engaged in a major standoff at the border in 2014. Tokyo has its own spat with Beijing over islands in the East China Sea, and is increasingly vocal about its rival’s ambitions to control almost the whole of the South China Sea. Modi visited Japan in August 2014 on his first bilateral trip outside South Asia, months after coming to power. Subsequently Abe paid a two-day visit to India last December. The Indian leader will wind up his trip in the city of Kobe on Saturday as he and Abe visit a plant that manufactures high speed bullet trains. • Like what you’re reading? SUBSCRIBE TODAY Call: 0161-I-WANT-DT (01614926838) | Visit: dhakatribune.com/subscribe Dhaka Tribune
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