Energiforsyning i Arktis – hvilken vej vælger Grønland? - Artek ...

Figure 4.2: Arctic sea ice projection for the
21 st century (Walsh, 2010, Pers. Comm.
University of Alaska Fairbanks).
The projected sea ice extent shown in Figure
4.2 is based on the median of several model
predictions (Walsh, 2010, Pers. Comm.). It
is evident, based on the models, that during
the next several decades, the winter
shipping most likely will require ice
breakers, however during extended summer
or fall months, the Arctic water will become
highly accessible beyond 2040 for
continuous shipping traffic.
The Northwest Passage is not expected to
become a viable trans-Arctic route through
2020 due to seasonality, ice conditions, a
complex archipelago, draft restrictions,
chokepoints, lack of adequate charts,
insurance limitations and other costs, which
diminish the likelihood of regularly
scheduled services from the Pacific to the
Atlantic (Brigham et al., 2009). Based on
sea ice model predictions for further in the
time line (Figure 4.2); the opening of the
Northwest Passage beyond 2020 is more
probable.
5. Potential deep harbor locations
Ships that are built to travel in Arctic waters
are more expensive than general cargo
ships. It is the owners’ main interest to keep
the ships in Arctic waters for most of the
time. It brings the point that after leaving
Arctic waters, another ship should be
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involved (maybe a larger cargo) to
unload/upload the goods into a less
expensive cargo ship (Hemsath, 2009, Pers.
Comm.). To do so, a deep harbor with
facilities and equipment that are capable to
perform such activities are crucial. The
current docking facilities in the area are the
following (NUKA Research Planning Group,
2004): Adak, Akutan, Atka, Cold Bay, False
Pass, King Cove, and St. Paul. Other docking
facilities in the Aleutian Islands: Nelson
Lagoon, Sand Point, St. George, and
Unalaska.
6. Land ownership
There are four major types of land
ownership in the Aleutian Islands.
Government owned, e.g. military base,
Bureau of Land Management; state owned;
native land and private land. Any areas in
the Aleutian Islands that are owned by or
under the Fish and Wildlife Service, are not
permitted/available for development
(Garcia, 2010, Pers. Comm.). From the
point of view of development, the green
areas (Fish and Wildlife Service) are
significantly large areas in some regions.
Figure 6.1 shows the four most common
land ownerships (military, native, fish and
wildlife service and private land) in the
Aleutian Islands, with the main focus on
some areas with proven geothermal
resources (data available on the Bureau of
Land Management website).
7. People
This is a general topic that frequently came
up during the interviews. The Aleutian
Islands are composed of small settlements.
Especially when a larger facility is planned to
be built, are there enough people locally for
a project like the ones mentioned earlier? If
not, where to acquire the required man
power? One idea that surfaced is the model
of Prudhoe Bay. In Prudhoe Bay, most of the
workforce comprise if people from outside of
the community. Most workers who work
there do so on a bi-weekly basis with two
weeks on and two weeks off. They live
somewhere else, like Fairbanks, Anchorage,
or even as far as the lower 48 states.