China GA Report EN

TRAINING SCHOOLS AND PILOTS
PILOT OUTLOOK
According to Boeing’s Annual China Market Outlook,
airlines in China will spend more than US$1 trillion on
new airplanes over the next two decades to account
for the country’s demand for air travel. Air traffic over China is
set to almost quadruple in the next two decades, making it the
world’s busiest market, according to Airbus Group. Faced with
a local shortage of experienced pilots, the industry in China
has made news as it looked to satisfy the demand.
As of the end of 2016, there were a total of 50,504 Chinese pilot
licenses issued — a stark increase from 27,807, just five years
earlier in 2011. The total number in 2016 includes 3,090 private
pilot licenses (PPL), 26,712 commercial pilot’s license (CPL)
s, 104 multi-crew pilot licenses, and 19,941 air transport pilot’s
licenses (ATPL)s, according to the Annual Report of Chinese Pilot
Development 2016.
Projected Airline Pilots by 2036
81,720
8,142
89,862
Pilot demand for increased fleet
Retirement
Total number of new pilot needed
Competition between airlines is increasing around the world.
In China, the emergence of low-cost carriers is threatening the
market position of the “Big Three” airlines of China. When airlines
can no longer guarantee profit, they are less likely to invest on
cadet pilot programs. The lack of upfront investment on pilots
has since created problems not only on major international
airlines but also smaller one.
Commercial airlines are now more likely to hire self-funded pilots
with sufficient flying hours and corresponding type ratings,
which may intensify the pilot shortage problem in the GA sector
of China. While the benefits and career prospects of the large
airlines attract the top tiers of cadet pilot and commercial pilot
programs, regional airlines and GA airlines suffer from a reduced
pool of pilots.
The pilot demand/supply imbalance problem has been making
headlines in the China aviation industry. Worldwide, the industry
needs 617,000 new pilots by 2035 to meet the projected growth
in pilot demand. Approximately 90,000 pilots of the worldwide
demand will be required for China — 16% of the global demand
according to ASG’s estimation.
With more than 6,810 new aircraft deliveries in China by 2035,
averaging 12 pilots per aircraft, the total demand for commercial
airline pilots by 2035 is 81,720. Coupled with the 8,142 retiring
pilots by 2035, the total demand for pilots comes to 89,862.
China would need an extra 4,403 pilots per year to meet the
demand for airline pilots, an 11% growth annually. In 2012, China
only produced 3,574 pilot graduates, however, the industry has
since benefited from an increase in Part 141 training schools
within China — from 12 in 2012 to 22 in 2017. Registered pilots of
all categories increased from 31,381 to 50,504 and pilot growth,
as of 2016 is 4,981.
Airline Pilot Demand and Supply
4,403
4,981
New pilots needed per year
Pilot growth in 2016
Why do we still face a pilot shortage problem in general aviation
when the average growth rate of pilot graduates is higher than
the projected annual additional pilot demand?
At the current rate of pilot production, there are too many first
officers in the commercial airlines. The transition period from
first officer to captain, which requires at least 1,500 flying hours
with an ATPL license, has risen from five to ten years, due to
insufficient flying hours from high competition. However, these
pilots are unwilling to move to the GA sector because of low
salary and job prospects with less quality packages.
64 | CHINA GA REPORT 2017