RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: St. Louis Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 982,300 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 15,300 / 1.11% RCR 2018 Forecast 19,000 / 1.36% RCR 2019 Forecast 11,500 / 0.81% RCR 2020 Forecast 8,800 / 0.62% RCR 2021 Forecast 10,800 / 0.75% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 94.43% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 43 Annual Chg. (Reis) -1.0% RCR YE18 Forecast 93.7% RCR YE19 Forecast 93.9% RCR YE20 Forecast 94.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 94.2% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $846 Annual Change 2.9% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 27 RCR YE18 Forecast 1.4% RCR YE19 Forecast 2.7% RCR YE20 Forecast 2.3% RCR YE21 Forecast 2.2% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 6.75% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 35 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 5.44 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 6 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 6.20% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 6.96% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 106
SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES St. Louis Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate St. Louis Occupancy Rate 97% 96% 95% 94.4% 93.7% 93.9% 94.1% 94.2% 94.6% 94% 93% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 St. Louis Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth St. Louis Year-On-Year Rent Growth 6% 5% 2.9% 4% 3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2% 1.4% 1% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 St. Louis Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Payroll Growth St. Louis Year-On-Year Payroll Job Growth 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 107
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YEAR-END 2017 GUIDE TO MARKETS
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SECTION 1 Market Performance
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Exe
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Rec
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Mac
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Red
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Met
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SECTION 2 Metro Forecast Summaries
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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIE
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RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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