RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: Houston Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 3,070,467 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 46,800 / 1.55% RCR 2018 Forecast 65,100 / 2.12% RCR 2019 Forecast 42,400 / 1.35% RCR 2020 Forecast 26,000 / 0.82% RCR 2021 Forecast 20,600 / 0.64% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 93.55% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 48 Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.2% RCR YE18 Forecast 93.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 94.6% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.1% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $971 Annual Change 5.1% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 11 RCR YE18 Forecast 2.3% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 2.0% RCR YE21 Forecast 2.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 7.02% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 28 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 5.45 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 5 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 5.55% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 6.12% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 50
SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Houston Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate Houston Occupancy Rate 98% 97% 96% 95% 93.5% 93.8% 94.6% 95.1% 95.1% 95.0% 94% 93% 92% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Houston Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts 7% RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth Houston Year-On-Year Rent Growth 6% 5.1% 5% 3.4% 4% 3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2% 1% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Houston Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Payroll Growth Houston Year-On-Year Payroll Job Growth 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% -0.5% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 51
Page 1 and 2: YEAR-END 2017 GUIDE TO MARKETS
Page 3 and 4: SECTION 1 Market Performance
Page 5: SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Exe
Page 8 and 9: SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Rec
Page 10 and 11: SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Mac
Page 12 and 13: SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Red
Page 14 and 15: SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Met
Page 17 and 18: SECTION 2 Metro Forecast Summaries
Page 19 and 20: SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIE
Page 49: SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIE
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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIE
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RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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