RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Metro: Washington, DC Benchmark: Red 49 Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 2,707,200 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 41,600 / 1.56% RCR 2018 Forecast 37,700 / 1.39% RCR 2019 Forecast 30,900 / 1.13% RCR 2020 Forecast 22,500 / 0.81% RCR 2021 Forecast 18,800 / 0.67% Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls (4Q17) 75,856,600 4Q17 Year-on-Year Change 1,287,000 / 1.73% RCR 2018 Forecast 1,587,500 / 2.09% RCR 2019 Forecast 1,128,900 / 1.46% RCR 2020 Forecast 916,200 / 1.17% RCR 2021 Forecast 999,000 / 1.29% Occupancy Rate Summary 4Q17 Occupancy Rate (Reis) 93.41% Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.44% RED 49 Rank 49 Annual Chg. (Reis) -1.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 92.7% RCR YE19 Forecast 92.9% RCR YE20 Forecast 93.5% RCR YE21 Forecast 94.2% Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE18 Forecast 95.0% RCR YE19 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE20 Forecast 95.2% RCR YE21 Forecast 95.2% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,732 Annual Change 2.9% Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,342 Annual Change 3.9% RED 49 Rent Change Rank 30 RCR YE18 Forecast 2.7% RCR YE19 Forecast 1.6% RCR YE20 Forecast 1.6% RCR YE21 Forecast 2.1% RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8% RCR YE19 Forecast 3.4% RCR YE20 Forecast 3.1% RCR YE21 Forecast 3.2% Total Return Summary Expected Total Return 5.27% Total Return Summary Avg. Expected Total Return 6.97% ETR RED 49 RANK 49 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 2.94 Risk-adjusted Index (RAI) 4.16 RAI RED 49 RANK 42 Generic Purchase Cap Rate 4.95% Derived Terminal Cap Rate 5.71% Average Purchase Cap Rate 5.21% Average Terminal Cap Rate 5.79% 114
SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIES Washington, DC Occupancy Rate History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Occupancy Rate Washington, DC Occupancy Rate 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93.4% 92.7% 92.9% 93.5% 9421% 94.5% 93% 92% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 Washington, DC Rent Growth History and Forecast Souces: Reis, Inc. History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Year-On-Year Rent Growth Washington, DC Year-On-Year Rent Growth 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2.9% 2.7% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 1% 0% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Washington, DC Payroll Job History and Forecast Souces: BLS History and RCR Forecasts RED 49 Y-O-Y Payroll Growth Wash MSA Y-O-Y Payroll Job Growth DC Y-O-Y Payroll Job Growth 1.6% 1.4% -0.5% 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 115
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YEAR-END 2017 GUIDE TO MARKETS
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SECTION 1 Market Performance
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Exe
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Rec
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Mac
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Red
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SECTION 1 | MARKET PERFORAMANCE Met
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SECTION 2 Metro Forecast Summaries
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SECTION 2 | METRO FORECAST SUMMARIE
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RCG 17 Guide to Markets FINAL[1]

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