Paris School of Economics - L'Agence Française de Développement

tries, and then split up the six remaining
World Bank regions, and re-estimate the factor
model for each. As a result, in the bottom
panel, the time variation is the same within
regions, but not across them. In both panels,
when I have real data on the fraction hungry I
use it, and when not, I use the appropriate
factor for imputation. In all cases, the fractions
are converted to totals by multiplying by
the population.
The absolute size of these numbers is of little
importance, and will certainly vary with the
precise wording of the question. More important
is that the Gallup data confirm a substantial
increase in the number of hungry people
from 2008 to 2009, by 117 million worldwide,
and 78 million in low and low middle income
countries. As argued by the FAO, such an
increase is entirely plausible given the food
price spike in 2008 and the financial crisis that
began in that year. Of the worldwide increase,
most is in low income countries, though there
was also a substantial increase, form 90 to 113
million in high income countries. In the low
and middle income countries, the increase is
entirely attributable to increases in South and
East Asia, with no increase in Latin America,
Europe and Central Asia, or sub-Saharan Africa.
Indeed, by 2009 there are more hungry people
in South Asia than in sub-Saharan Africa,
though the fractions are twice as high in Africa.
The data actually show a decrease in those
reporting hunger in North Africa and the
Middle-East; a good deal of this is imputation
(Iran, Morocco, and Yemen), but all of the
large countries for which there are actual data
(Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia) show a reduction
between 2008 and 2009.
The Gallup estimates show no evidence of an
increase in hunger from 2005/7 to 2008,
unlike the FAO who show almost as large an
increase over this period as between 2008
and 2009. Instead, the Gallup data show what
looks like a steady improvement until the year
after the financial crisis and the food price
increase.
December 2011 / Measure for Measure / How Well Do We Measure Development? / © AFD [ 45
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