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26 • September 1-14, 2018 Business b Freight from page 21 b Some carriers were only paying detention time after two or three hours, “now they’re paying 100 percent,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research. “You’re afraid that the rate of growth in freight is slowing down but what we’re seeing is that the industry is still in a meaningfully capacity restrained” situation with drivers, he said. He added that for a while, rates should remain tilted in truckers’ favor, not in favor of shippers. Although a staunch Democrat politically, Vieth said President Donald Trump’s “tax windfall” has helped create “a pull-forward demand,” sustaining a healthy economy for at least another year. There are several things that could hasten the demise of the great freight environment. One of those, both Vieth and Costello said, is if trade skirmishes become an all-out trade war. The National Retail Federation is also concerned about what tariffs will do to commerce. That being said, however, the number of imports at the nation’s major retail container ports have set two new records highs this summer and are expected to set another record high for August, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released August 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Tax reform and a thriving economy are mostly driving retail sales, the report said, but part of it seems to be concern over what’s to come as far as tariffs and trade policies. Global Port Tracker “has only marginally downgraded imports for 2018 but we expect to see a larger downturn going into 2019 resulting from the trade war as well as an anticipated slowing of the economy,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “The volatility and non-factbased decisions coming from Washington have created uncertainty.” Then there’s the supply-and-demand seesaw. “You know, the higher the cliff the bigger the fall,” Vieth said. And “you don’t change aggregate demand; you just change the timing of demand. So you pull a bunch of demand say, for machine tools or machinery over the course of the next three or four years, there is some expectation of softening. Our model says that there are about the number of tractors in the field today relative to the work to be done.” On the other hand, from this past March to May, the build-out of tractors decreased because parts manufacturers couldn’t find enough workers. In June, there was an uptick as more tractors came off the assembly lines with all their needed components. A significant concern he has is the rate of inflation, which could also blunt the freight boom. Then there are factors like the health of other industries that impact trucking, like the housing market. “We just saw the housing starts in the building permits numbers,” Vieth said, and “they were kind of soft, and the rising interest rates and the inability to find construction workers and rising home prices” could mean the economy is starting to slow down. “Ultimately, you know you can’t sustain that rate of growth, and THETRUCKER.COM so freight growth is going to roll over.” The question is when. By the third quarter of 2019, certainly, this freight up-cycle is “going to be kind of long in the tooth,” Vieth said. At some point, the industry’s ability to attract drivers will go up and “at some point freight’s going to roll over and those two lines will cross. So it’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.” A bellwether of when that will happen has to do with interest rates, Vieth explained. “Bankers borrow money at short-term rates and they lend money at long-term rates.” So as long as long-term rates are higher than short-term rates, things are OK. But “when you get the yield curve to where the short-term rate is higher than the long-term rate, bankers are no longer making money on lending.” When that happens, credit conditions tighten as banks stop lending money, capital dries up, projects sit for lack of funding and the economy heads toward recession. But then nobody has a crystal ball. So stay tuned. 8 TRUCKER 2-3 PAGE.indd 1 8/13/18 3:16 PM
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Page 1 and 2: Vol. 31, No. 17 www.thetrucker.com
Page 3 and 4: THETRUCKER.COM Nation September 1-1
Page 11 and 12: THETRUCKER.COM b Law from page 7 b
Page 13 and 14: THETRUCKER.COM b FMCSA from page 1
Page 15 and 16: thetrucker.com Perspective Septembe
Page 17 and 18: CATTheTrucker052318b.qxp_Layout 1 5
Page 19 and 20: THETRUCKER.COM Perspective Septembe
Page 21 and 22: Business September 1-14, 2018 • 2
Page 23 and 24: THETRUCKER.COM Business September 1
Page 25: 25 PRESENTED FIRST ISSUE OF EACH MO
Page 29 and 30: Technology September 1-14, 2018 •
Page 31 and 32: Equipment September 1-14, 2018 •
Page 33 and 34: Features September 1-14, 2018 • 3
Page 35 and 36: THETRUCKER.COM Features September 1
Page 37 and 38: thetrucker.com September 1-14, 2018
Page 39: THETRUCKER.COM Features September 1

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