BusinessDay 07 Jan 2019

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28 BUSINESS DAY C002D5556 Monday 07 January 2019 Kingsley Moghalu has most coherent economic vision for Nigeria — PwC chief economist DIPO OLADEHINDE Ahead of 2019 elections, Andrew Nevin, Nigeria’s chief economist for Pricewaterhouse- Coopers (PwC), has chosen Young Progressive Party (YPP) presidential candidate Kingsley Moghalu as the candidate with the most credible economic plan. Nevin said the economic manifesto of YPP presidential candidate Kingsley Moghalu is superior because of its detailed look at the range of capitalist models, arguing precisely what will work in Nigeria. “Dr K (referring to Kingsley Moghalu) has the most incisive analysis of the unsustainable fiscal regime and is willing to face up to our looming debt crisis,” Nevin said on his LinkedIn page. The chief economist at PwC noted that Moghalu rightly recognises that there is a need for rural Nigeria to prosper if the country is going to succeed. “Fifty-three percent of Nigerians live in rural areas and it is not sufficient for just Lagos do to well or even Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna we need all of Nigeria to do well.” “Dr K faces up squarely to the federal/state restructuring issue - he is courageous enough to say not only do we need restructuring, but also that at least 30 of 36 states are economically unviable, so only a restructuring JOSHUA BASSEY Olusegun Oshinowo, former director-general of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), says whoever becomes the next president must pay a closer attention to infrastructure in order to attract new investments. Oshinowo pointed out that the Nigerian economy is bleeding from over-regulation, as multiple regulatory agencies created by the government— most of which have duplicated functions— see themselves as existing only for revenue drive. He said rather than support and aide enterprise, the agencies have become a cog in the Kingsley Moghalu that reduces the economic units (back to 6 in Dr K’s case) can work for us,” Nevin said. Nevin noted that the five critical policies from the YPP manifesto that will have a particularly positive impact on reversing the country’s decline include: Partial privatisation of the NNPC, with a listing on the NSE, abolition of the Land Use Act, elimination of the fuel subsidy, engagement of the Diaspora, and real restructuring. Before arriving at the conclusion, Andrew Nevin reviewed the economic plans of four presidential candidates comprising of ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by incumbent, President Muhammed Buhari using Economic, Recovery and Growth (ERGP), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by former vice president Atiku Abubakar using Let’s Get Nigeria Working Again, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) under Obi Ezekwesili using Project Rescue Nigeria plan and Young Progressive Party (YPP) by its presidential candidate Kingsley Moghalu using Build, Innovate, and Grow - My Vision for our Country. “So of the manifestos of the APC, PDP, ACPN, and YPP, only the YPP’s Manifesto has the coherence and boldness to reverse our current economic path,” Nevin said. Nevin noted that the analysis was purely from a purely economic perspective (not a political perspective) and do not consider other critical issues Nigeria faces (corruption and security being the most important), noting that the views he expressed do not represent the views of any organisation associated with him. “Let me say on a positive note that all candidates recognise that we cannot continue to get poorer and poorer, as they have put considerable effort in their economic policies. All at least state that we need to have a vibrant private sector if we are to succeed, ” Nevin said. Nevin urged all Nigerians to exercise their hard-won democratic rights, noting that what the nation has accomplished during the short time since the military rule has been astonishing and wonderful. “Let me re-iterate again that these are my personal views and do not represent any of the organisation with which I am affiliated,” Nevin said. Next president must focus on infrastructure to attract investments— Oshinowo wheel of economic growth, as businesses in many respects are hounded, thereby discouraging investments. The consequence of this, according to Oshinowo, is that business expansion is hampered by negative impact on employment generation. The DG spoke during a valedictory press conference, saying in other climes regulatory agencies play critical roles in the encouragement of growth and sustenance of enterprise. Oshinowo retired from NECA last month after 19 years of service in the association. “Unlike in other environment where regulation is used to encourage and aide the growth of enterprise, regulatory agencies in Nigeria have actually become killers of businesses” said Oshinowo. The former DG also made a case for the restructuring of Nigeria to allow states take full responsibility for their resources and manage same to create wealth for their citizens. According to him, the continued dependence of the federating states on the monthly federal allocations makes nonsense of the idea of a federal structure that Nigeria had set out to operate. “Nigeria must restructure to allow states take responsibility for certain aspects of this economy. Even if you have zerolevel corruption, best economic policies, if you don’t restructure to allow state create wealth for the people, those policies won’t work.” Oshinowo said that a situation where only Lagos and Abuja are the centres of attraction is not good for the country. “Today, it is only Lagos and Abuja that things seem to be happening. There are no economic opportunities for the citizens in other states. So, what you find is a situation where Nigerians are moving out of those states to Lagos to find means of livelihood. This is not good for the economy. The federating states must be able to create opportunities to engage their citizens and fight poverty.” Citing the gridlock around the ports and Apapa, Oshinowo said there was the strong need for government to take the issue of infrastructure more seriously. “Any president in the 2019 must focus on infrastructure development to attract new investments and strengthen the economy,” said Oshinowo. Timothy Olawale, the DG designate who takes over from January 2019, said he would build on the successes recorded by his predecessor. Olawale said the association under his leadership would continue to pursue his core mandate of protecting the interests and rights of member companies as well as sustain its human capacity building programme, weaved into a five-year strategic plan which starts from 2019 to 2023.
Monday 07 January 2019 g www. g @ g BUSINESS DAY 29 Why the electorate need to turn out and vote with conscience AMAKA ANAGOR-EWUZIE Repeated tales of pain about the state of the nation have become the order of day with Nigerians. This indicates that many Nigerians are hard hit by the poor state of the economy and lack of respite in sight. For them, the government of the day has done little or nothing to improve the standard of living of the poor masses. The economic hardship is characterised by prevailing national poverty and a high rate of unemployment. As companies’ profit margins continue to shrink, majority resort to staff lay-offs to cut cost and manage margins. Basic necessities are beyond the reach of many Nigerians as the cost of foreign exchange, especially the rate of the naira to the dollar skyrocketed from N200 per dollar in 2015 to over N360 per dollar in 2018. This not only fueled inflation, but also reduced the purchasing power of Nigerians, whose monthly expenditure increased without corresponding increase in income earned. In all of this, one thing is certain, and this is the fact that the electorate are the real kingmakers because they are the people that choose who will lead them at different levels of government. Therefore, if an elected government fails to enthrone good governance while in power, it means that the electorate also failed to choose the right leader. Abraham Lincoln, former American President, who preached the importance of government of, for, and by the people, said that voters played the most important role in making sure the government reflects their desires and function according to the guidelines of the constitution. This is why the right to vote should not by any means be taken for granted. The outcome of elections plays a very important role in the voters’ personal freedoms, taxes, and other aspects of daily life that people take for granted. Because of the far reaching impact election can have, it is the civic responsibility of citizens to not only cast their votes if they want a say in how their futures play out, but to also vote in the right person. According to the Electoral Act 2010, the most important responsibility as citizens involves registering to vote and voting during elections. “A person shall be qualified to be registered as a voter if such a person – (a) is a citizen of Nigeria; (b) has attained the age of 18 years; (c) is ordinarily resident, works in, originates from the Local Government Area Council, or Ward, covered by the registration centre; (d) presents himself to the Registration Officer of the Commission for registration as a voter; and (e) is not subject to any legal incapacity to vote under any law, rule or regulation in force in Nigeria.” Alarmingly, many Nigerians today have failed to acknowledge their role in shaping the government. Many dismiss the responsibility of voting during elections by not caring about the issues on the ballot. However, by failing to use their privilege to vote, people essentially allow other voters to make decisions for them, to let their voices be heard over voters who make no effort to go to the polls. This is why the electorate need to vote. Meanwhile, some Nigerians go to the polling centre without a clear decision of whom to vote for. This group of people ends up mortgaging their future by collecting inducement such as money and gift items from politicians in order to vote. As Nigeria moves closer to the next general elections slated for the first quarter of 2019, there is need for every Nigerian up to the eligible voting age, to note that exercising their right to vote is essential to being a good citizen. The past four years in Nigeria have been lived in lamentation but to put an end to this and avoid reoccurrence, Nigerians must join forces to enthrone ‘real change’. They must show interest in the electoral process starting from party primaries, through campaigns and voting at the elections. In doing this, there is need to get it right by coming out enmass to vote for the right candidates with the pedigree required to turn Nigerian economy in the right direction. We need to enthrone the right economic managers in accordance to their competences and capabilities, if Nigeria will grow in the next four years. NEWS Police Recruitment: 232,000 excess applicants underscore Nigeria’s unemployment problem MICHEAL ANI The recent announcement by the Nigeria Police on the excessive turn out of people applying for recruitment into the law enforcement agency, affirms the critical state of the nation’s unemployment crisis, analysts say. As at 1:00pm, 2nd Jan 2018, the Police Service Commission (PSC) said it had received applications from 242,455 persons in its on-going recruitment exercise, even though it plans to enlist only 10,000 of these numbers into the Nigeria Police Force. This figure shows an excess of more than 232,000 applicants vowing for the positions, a number analysts say is a tip of an iceberg of how Nigerians jostle for jobs as falling infrastructural development and slowdown in economic activities have forced companies turn off the tap of recruitment. This number of applications that the police received as at that date implies that for each successful applicant, 24 others will be rejected. That is, assuming that the applications stop at this number, which is unlikely. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown that the rate of unemployment has been on a consistent increase in the past three years, settling as high as 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018 from 18.8 percent recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. In nominal terms, a total of 20.9 million Nigerians are unemployed, signalling that about 3.1 million people have entered into the unemployment trap in less than a year. The NBS had earlier in Q4 2017 reported the number to be 17.8 million. “I am not surprised at the statistics released by the Nigerian police with regards to the number of participants that signified interest as against those that are required as it is an indication of the massive unemployment in the society,” says Timothy Olawale, Director-General, Nigerian Employers Consultative association. “There is no way that the government despite all its efforts in creating jobs, is going to succeed if the focus is on white-collar job creation alone, which is what they are throwing up,” Olawale said. An average university student in Nigeria spends about 4 years in the university, if and only if the Academic Staff Union of Universities and / or the Non Academic staff union does not embark upon any strike whatsoever. For about two months now, teachers in public universities in Nigeria have been on an indefinite strike designed to compel the federal government to meet their complaints on issues including poor funding, poor remuneration and low infrastructural developments in school. “It is not as if there are no jobs in the country, but the skills required to match these jobs are not there. That is why we say the government should identify what those skills are and make concerted efforts to develop capacity in those skills; that way our youth will fit into those jobs that are available,” Olawale said. “Furthermore, there is the need to imbibe in our youths the entrepreneurial spirit so that they can be self-employed,” he added. President Muhammadu Buhari, in November last year, announced the approval of a new salary package for police personnel “with a view to restoring its lost primacy in the internal security framework of the country”. A statement by the PSC’s acting Head, Press and Public Relations, Aaron Kaase, shows that of the total applicants, Niger State led with 15, 633 applications, followed by Kano State with 15, 079, Katsina State, 14, 582, Bauchi State, 12, 652, Kaduna State, 13, 882 and Adamawa State with 11, 449 applicants. Bayelsa State had the lowest applications of 1, 258, followed by Lagos State, 1, 358, Ebonyi State, 1, 659 and Anambra State, 1,618. CBN makes first New Year entry into forex market with $210m ... as external reserves decline to $43.05bn HOPE MOSES-ASHIKE The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Friday, January 4, 2019, made its first intervention in the inter-bank sector of the foreign exchange market for 2019 with a total sum of $210 million injected into the wholesale segment and other sectors of the market. A breakdown of the figures obtained from the CBN on Friday showed that customers in the Wholesale sector of the market received the sum of $100 million with the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and invisibles sectors each getting $55 million to meet the needs of customers. The dollar supply has helped to boost liquidity in the market strengthened the value of the local currency. Consequently, naira gained N1.00k on Friday to close at N361 per dollar at the parallel market from N362 traded the previous day. However, naira depreciated marginally by N0.05k to close at N365.35k on Friday from N365.30k per dollar traded on Thursday, data from FMDQ indicated. External reserves last week declined to $43.0 billion as at Friday, January 4, 2019 from $43.28 billion as at December 24, 2018, data from CBN revealed. Isaac Okorafor, CBN’s director in charge of corporate communications, said the CBN continued from where it stopped in 2018 in order to maintain the stability being enjoyed in the market. While noting that the Bank had made commendable effort in keeping the exchange rates at the current levels, Okorafor re-echoed the Bank’s Governor, Godwin Emefiele saying that the current capital flow reversals from the emerging markets were expected to bring out pressures on the market rates. He, however, assured that, in spite of the anticipated pressures, coupled with the forthcoming elections, the Bank was committed to maintaining the current exchange rate policy, given the level of reserves. Quoting the Governor, Okorafor said that the CBN was determined to sustain a stable exchange rate as it continues to put in place relevant measures to shore up the country’s reserves. Meanwhile, one United States Dollar (US$1) exchanged for N357 in the Bureau De Change (BDC) segment of the market on Friday, January 4, 2019. “We expect activity level to improve as Christmas festivities wrap up; and further anticipate that the central bank will continue in its pursuit to stabilize the value of the Naira should any market volatility occur, possibly owing to pre-election uncertainties”, analysts at Afrinvest Securities limited said.
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BusinessDay 07 Jan 2019

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