Conflicts to Watch in The New Millennium

Since the July clashes, the fighting spread from the Greater Upper Nile to include the
previously safe haven of Equatoria, where the bulk of SPLM-IO forces went for shelter
from the clashes in Juba, located in Equatoria. As Equatoria is the agricultural belt of
the country, the number of people facing starvation soared to 6 million. In November
2016, SPLM-IO claimed to have taken of the towns Bazi, Morobo and Kaljak. While the
rebels were mostly in retreat in the upper nile front, the rebels had gained ground on the
Equatorian front where the SPLA was mostly restricted to its garrisons. This was
attributed to local self-defence militias becoming increasingly integrated and the
depopulation of towns resulting in the army having fewer supplies even while the rebels
were already adapted to the bush. However, after the fall of the main rebel
headquarters of Pagak in the summer, the Southern headquarters in Lasu fell on 18
December 2017. In late May, Kiir declared a unilateral ceasefire, which was taken with
suspicion by others as it came after the late April government offensive that retook
much territory and before the rainy season that would have anyway reduced
fighting. Three days after the government retook Lasu it signed another ceasefire with
the rebels in December 2017.
The other major front of the conflict remained the Greater Upper Nile, where
government forces mostly fought John Uliny's SPLA-IO allied Agwelek forces. In a study
of casualties up to early 2018, the deaths from violence peaked during this time
between 2016-2017. In October 2016, the rebels attempted to take Malakal and by
January 2017, fighting there had led to civilians deserting the country's second largest
city. In fighting in the Bahr el Ghazal region, pro-government militia Mathiang
Anyoor attacked Wau killing up to 50 civilians in April 2017. In the same month, SPLA-
IO captured Raja, the capital of Lol State, while state governor Hassan claimed the city
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