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Poster Communications
SP1
Wednesday, September 4th
19:45
Bolsonaro and Taurus Armas SA: an
intervention analysis in the period from 2015 to
2019
Thelma Safadi
UFLA
Thaís Alves dos Santos
Gabriel Rodrigo Gomes Pessanha
Nikolaos Kourentzes
With the signing of Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy for presidency in mid-2018 and the intensification of the
dissemination of his electoral flags, among them the improvement of public security and the easing of the
rules for granting arms possession, there was a significant increase in the shares of Taurus Armas S.A., one
of the three largest manufacturers of light weapons in the world. Therefore, the main objective of this
study is to measure and analyze the impacts of the 2018 elections on the Taurus Armas S.A. stock return
series from January 2015 to March 2019. After collecting the daily series of Taurus stock prices obtained by
through the Economatica software, the ARIMA class models were used as methodology, specifically the
intervention models, to verify if the performance during the campaign and, later election of the candidate
Jair Bolsonaro represented an intervention able to modify the behavior of the series time of return of Taurus.
Based on the surveys of voting intentions published by IBOPE (Brazilian Institute of Opinion and Statistics),
the interventions to be studied were constructed. After adjustment of the models, it was noticed that all the
adjusted models presented statistical significance and, from the results, it was possible to observe that the
leadership of the right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, the presidency of the republic in the surveys of intention to
vote (abrupt and temporary intervention) and, later, his election in October 2018 (abrupt and permanent
intervention) were configured as an intervention in the return series of Taurus Armas S.A.. Thus, it was
found that the performance of the then candidate during the campaign and in the elections were able to
change and/or influence changes in the behavior of the return series of the company studied. However,
it is interesting to note that intervention during the electoral campaign showed a positive relationship
with the series of returns and the intervention represented by the victory in the elections represented a
negative intervention in the series of returns, a fact that can be explained by the speculative character of
the stock market. The results were expected, as one of the promises of candidate Jair Bolsonaro was to
liberalize the possession and possession of firearms. In addition, the results are consistent with the theory of
market efficiency by revealing the stock market reaction by accessing new information and the potential
new scenario. The results contribute to firm theory addressing the clash between the political environment
and the investment market, more specifically its interdependence relationship. The study is current and
innovative because it reveals the interventionist nature of the performance of a presidential candidate in the
stock return series of the company studied.
Keywords: Bolsonaro; Elections; Intervention analysis; Taurus
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