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Senate Races 7 toss-ups that could decide control Here’s a look at each of those races. ARIZONA Candidates Republican candidates are U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Democratic candidates are U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and Deedra Abboud. There is no incumbent since Sen. Jeff Flake decided not to seek re-election. Polls In the GOP race, McSally leads Ward 33.3 percent to 25.3 percent; Arpaio has 19.5 percent. Sinema is considered a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. In a head-to-head between McSally and Sinema, the Democrat holds a 45 percent to 38 percent lead over McSally. While some political pundits are predicting that the Democrats could win back both the House and the Senate, it’s much easier to see how that could be accomplished in the senior chamber where Republicans hold a slim 51- 49 majority and where widely respected Real Clear Politics, a Chicago-based political news and polling data aggregator, classifies seven races as toss-ups — Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota and Tennessee. Race at a glance • Arizona primaries held August 28 • When Flake decided not to run, the GOP establishment initially struggled to find a replacement candidate to take on Ward in the primary. That changed when McSally, the first woman U.S. history to command a combat aviation unit, opted to run for the seat. • The entrance of controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has the potential to split the populist vote and perhaps open the door for McSally to win. • In the GOP primary, the latest Real Clear Politics average poll data show McSally holding a 33.3 percent to 25.3 percent lead with Arpaio at 19.5 percent. • The Associated Press reports that Sinema has only “nominal” opposition for the Democratic nomination and said Flake’s seat is within her reach. • A Sinema victory in November could have big implications beyond control of the Senate, signaling an opportunity for Democrats to make inroads in the Southwest. MISSOURI Candidates Missouri’s Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill and current Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley are set to face each other. Polls McCaskill holds a 1 point lead over Hawley. Race at a glance • It’s a state where President Donald Trump won by 19 percentage points in the 2016 election and Republicans control every statewide elected office except the auditor’s office and have supermajority control of the state House and Senate. • Real Clear Politics reports that the state has swung dramatically toward Republicans over the course of the past decade; Barack Obama narrowly lost the state in 2008, while Trump won by 20 points. However, if the national environment remains poisonous for Republicans, McCaskill may survive another term. • As attorney general, Hawley touts himself as having earned a reputation for taking on the big and the powerful to protect Missouri workers and families, “battling big government and big business, the special interests, organized crime, and anyone who would threaten the well-being of Missourians.” INDIANA Candidates Incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is running for re-election to a second term against businessman and former State Representative Mike Braun. Polls Real Clear Politics has Braun 1 point ahead. Race at a glance • Congressmen Luke Messer and Todd Rokita beat each other up in the GOP primary, allowing Braun to take advantage of the bloodshedding and win the nomination. Braun hasn’t been thoroughly vetted because Messer and Rokita focused so much of their fire on each other. • The danger for Democrats is that someone who hasn’t been to Washington is a pretty good foil for Donnelly in an environment where a Democratic senator is running in a red state. Real Clear Politics considers Donnelly in deep danger. • According to Politico, “Donnelly is constantly dogged by Republicans aiming to unseat him” while also facing “disgruntled Democrats who think he’s far too conservative.” • Braun said he is running because Indiana voters are ready for leaders “who can break the stranglehold career politicians have on control of the federal government and bring conservative change to Washington.” 10 Truckload Authority | www.Truckload.org TCA 2018
NORTH DAKOTA Candidates Republican Kevin Cramer, who holds North Dakota’s one seat in the House of Representatives, is challenging incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, who is seeking a second term. Polls Cramer leads Heitkamp 44 percent to 43.5 percent. Race at a glance • Heitkamp was thought to be a winner for another term until Cramer, who’s served three terms in the House, announced his candidacy. Pundits said when Cramer announced, the competitiveness of the race increased exponentially. Heitkamp is popular, but Cramer has won repeatedly in the same state, by increasingly large margins. • Heitkamp gives Democrats the best chance they could hope for in this blood red state, but it is an open question whether that chance is good enough. • Many anticipated that the race would be a pickup for Republicans. But, Real Clear Politics reported, 2012 Republican nominee Rick Berg underwhelmed, while the Democrats rallied around former Attorney General Heitkamp, who proved to be a fiery campaigner and a good fit for the state. • Heitkamp has been critical of Trump’s trade policies, saying they have threatened the economic livelihood of North Dakota’s agriculture and energy producers. • North Dakota ranks fifth in the nation in terms of residents 65 and older and Cramer is quick to point out his support of those senior adults, recently announcing he would cosponsor House Resolution 1026, an effort that calls on Congress to protect Social Security, as it provides “an essential benefit for current enrollees and should be strengthened for future generations.” FLORIDA Candidates Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson vs. current Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Polls Scott holds a 1-point lead over Nelson. Race at a glance • According to the most recent Real Clear Politics average poll data, Scott holds a 1-point lead over Nelson, who is considered by many the last of a dying breed of moderate white Southern Democrats. First elected to the House in 1978, Nelson’s voting record was quite conservative. • Gun control is an expected key issue for this race. The election comes less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history that killed 17 people. Nelson has also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, stating that “nothing was done” by Scott’s administration. • Both men are extremely popular among the state’s voters. Nelson currently holds a 47 percent-29 percent approval rating; Scott a 58 percent to 31 percent approval rating. TENNESSEE Candidates In Tennessee, where incumbent Sen. Bob Corker is not running for reelection, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn is seeking to become the first woman to represent Tennessee in the Senate. Should her opponent, former Gov. Phil Bredesen, win, he would become the first Democrat to win a Tennessee Senate race since Al Gore was re-elected in 1990. Polls In the most recent Real Clear Politics poll, Blackburn leads Bredesen by 4.5 percentage points. Race at a glance • Given that the Democrats failed to win this seat in 2006, when Corker first won, it seems like a stretch to believe that they can do so in today’s Tennessee, although the national environment will probably keep Bredesen in the game. • On his website, Bredesen says that “out-of-control partisanship is killing our country” and points to what he calls his long track record “of bringing Democrats and Republicans together to get things done for Tennessee.” He said as a businessman, mayor and governor, he was known for his bipartisan approach to problem solving and careful fiscal management. • Republicans have been quick to criticize Bredesen’s record as governor. They claim that while Bredesen was in the governor’s office, the number of Tennesseans on unemployment nearly doubled. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that when Bredesen became governor in January 2003, the state had about 149,000 unemployed people. When he left in January 2011, it had about 296,000. • Blackburn said she is running to help fix a “broken” Senate. NEVADA Candidates Incumbent GOP Sen. Dean Heller prepares to take on a serious challenge from Democrat Jacky Rosen, who represents Nevada’s 3rd Congressional district. Polls Rosen leads Heller by six-tenths of a point. Race at a glance • Democrats have sharply focused on Nevada as a takeaway state as incumbent Heller prepares to take on a serious challenge from Democrat Rosen. • Nevada was once considered a swing state that leaned slightly to the right. It has since become the opposite, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Dean Heller to the Senate by one point. In 2016, the state shifted right, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points. • Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, Heller is now cited by many observers as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for re-election in 2018, a year with few of that type. • Rosen took Heller to task for supporting the so-called “skinny” repeal of the healthcare act. She said Trump “is trying to pull up the ladder behind him, leaving the middle class stranded while his super-wealthy buddies turn the federal government into a source of enrichment for themselves.” • Heller voted for Trump’s agenda 96 percent of the time in 2017, according to Rosen. Tca 2018 www.Truckload.org | Truckload Authority 11
Page 1 and 2: capitol recap | HIGHWAY ANGELS | SC
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