The Future of Soil and Land Stewardship - An exploration of stewardship in three scenarios

Operation Soil
An international alliance pioneers radical change
THREE SUPERPOWERS, THREE STRATEGIES
By the middle of the 21st century, the geopolitical order had crystallized
around three super-powers: the US, China and the European-African Axis
(EAA). They played on different chessboards with different logics of power.
The US hegemony was still based on military might, initiated with the
atomic bombings of 1945. This legacy got a new flavour when droughts and
wildfires increasingly plagued the planet. In 2035, the much-dreaded ‘water
wars’ became a reality when the US started seeding rain clouds above the
Great Plains - just before they crossed borders with Canada and Mexico.
China’s pivotal moment occurred in 2001 when it got free access to the
global economy by entering the World Trade Organisation. In just a few
decades, it manoeuvred itself into a central trade position by controlling the
networks (physical and virtual, transport and communication), standards
(currencies, IP addresses and 5G) and platforms (e-commerce, stock exchange
markets) that supported the global exchange of goods and information.
1.
The EU chose environmental stewardship as a lever for geopolitical power,
in tight partnership with the African Union. This more inclusive governance
model tried to restore the damaged moral authority of the West by tackling
universal challenges such as climate change, poverty and pandemics.
Spreading an idea of world affairs that attracts others enables you to both
advance your objectives and amplify your values, more than you could do
on your own - that was the idea behind it.
A TRINITY OF CRISES
2.
Europe’s tipping point occurred between 2020 and 2025. First, there was
the Covid-19 pandemic which had dramatic implications for both European
and African economies. Secondly, in the night of 2 December 2022 France
was ravaged by Lena. This class 2 thunderstorm took over 3,500 people’s
lives, caused 2 billion euro in damage, and uprooted millions of trees. Its
psychological impact was intensified by two disasters that hit the nation in
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