As with o<strong>the</strong>r studies, we observe that most f<strong>in</strong>ancial service companies are affected by a market or <strong>in</strong>dustry factor, which is generally <strong>the</strong> largest pr<strong>in</strong>cipal component when analyz<strong>in</strong>g returns to f<strong>in</strong>ancial service firms. As with o<strong>the</strong>r studies, we also f<strong>in</strong>d that <strong>the</strong>re is a second factor, <strong>and</strong> we propose an explanation for this factor; we posit that this factor represents <strong>the</strong> diversification potential of <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial service <strong>in</strong>dustry, as proxied by <strong>the</strong> variance of <strong>the</strong> correlations among <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial service portfolios. We also f<strong>in</strong>d that <strong>in</strong>surance companies are related to third <strong>and</strong> fourth pr<strong>in</strong>cipal components, which is consistent with o<strong>the</strong>r studies. We also exam<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> possibility of feedback, ei<strong>the</strong>r unidirectional or bidirectional, among <strong>the</strong> types of f<strong>in</strong>ancial services companies. We use tests of Granger causality to exam<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> relation among <strong>the</strong> current, lagged, <strong>and</strong> lead monthly returns. We f<strong>in</strong>d that <strong>the</strong> causality attributed to <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>surance <strong>in</strong>dustry by o<strong>the</strong>r studies is most likely driven primarily by f<strong>in</strong>ancial guarantee <strong>and</strong> life <strong>in</strong>surers. 18
REFERENCES Acharya, Viral V., Lasse H. Pedersen, Thomas Philippon, <strong>and</strong> Mat<strong>the</strong>w Richardson, 2010, “Measur<strong>in</strong>g Systemic Risk,” work<strong>in</strong>g paper, New York University, Stern School of Bus<strong>in</strong>ess, New York, NY, available at ssrn.com/abstract=1573171. Adrian, Tobias <strong>and</strong> Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011, work<strong>in</strong>g paper. CoVaR, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports. http://newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr348.pdf Bali, Turan G., <strong>and</strong> Armen Hovakimian (2007), “Volatility Spreads <strong>and</strong> Expected Stock Returns,” work<strong>in</strong>g paper, available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=1029197 or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1029197. Baluch, Faisal, Mutenga, Stanley <strong>and</strong> Chris Parsons (2011) <strong>Insurance</strong>, Systemic Risk <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis, The Geneva Papers, 36:126-‐163. Baranoff, Etti (2012) Streams of Thoughts on <strong>the</strong> IAIS Proposed Methodology for Designat<strong>in</strong>g Systemically Important Insurers, <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>and</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance Newsletter, The Geneva Association, Editorial, August 2012(10). www.genevaassociation.org/PDF/<strong>Insurance</strong>_And_F<strong>in</strong>ance/GA2012-‐I&F10.pdf, accessed August 26, 2012. Billio, Monica, Mila Getmansky, Andrew W. Lo, <strong>and</strong> Loriana Pelizzon (2010), “Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance <strong>and</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong> Sectors,” NBER Work<strong>in</strong>g Paper Number 16223. Chen, Hua, J. David Cumm<strong>in</strong>s, Krupa S. Viswanathan <strong>and</strong> Mary A. Weiss (2012) “Systemic Risk <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Inter-‐Connectedness between Banks <strong>and</strong> Insurers: An Econometric Analysis,” work<strong>in</strong>g paper available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=1997437 or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1997437. Comrey, A. L. <strong>and</strong> H. B. Lee (1992). A first course <strong>in</strong> factor analysis. (2 nd . Ed.) Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Cumm<strong>in</strong>s, J. David <strong>and</strong> Mary Weiss (2010), Systemic Risk <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> U.S. <strong>Insurance</strong> Sector, ssrn.com/abstract=1725512 Drake, Pamela Peterson, <strong>and</strong> Faith R. Neale (2011), “F<strong>in</strong>ancial Guarantee <strong>Insurance</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Failures of Risk Management,” Journal of <strong>Insurance</strong> Regulation, Vol. 30, p. 29. Elton, Edw<strong>in</strong> J., <strong>and</strong> Mart<strong>in</strong> J. Gruber (1973) “Estimat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Dependence Structure of Share Prices – Implications for Portfolio Selection,” Journal of F<strong>in</strong>ance, Vol. 8, No. 5 (December) pp. 1203-‐1232. Elton, Edw<strong>in</strong> J., Mart<strong>in</strong> J. Gruber, <strong>and</strong> Thomas Urich (1978) “Are Betas Best?” Journal of F<strong>in</strong>ance, Vol. 23 No. 5 (December), pp. 1375-‐1384. F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2011) F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis Inquiry Report, January. F<strong>in</strong>ancial Stability Board (2009). Guidance to Assess <strong>the</strong> Systemic Importance of F<strong>in</strong>ancial Institutions, Markets <strong>and</strong> Instruments: Initial Considerations, report to <strong>the</strong> G-‐20 F<strong>in</strong>ance M<strong>in</strong>isters <strong>and</strong> Central Bank Governors (Basel, Switzerl<strong>and</strong>), October. F<strong>in</strong>ancial Stability Board (2012). Authority to Require Supervision <strong>and</strong> Regulation of Certa<strong>in</strong> Nonbank F<strong>in</strong>ancial Companies,” 12 CFR Part 1130, RIN 4030-‐AA00 (April 3). The Geneva Association (2012) Considerations for Identify<strong>in</strong>g SIFI’s <strong>in</strong> <strong>Insurance</strong>-‐ A contribution to <strong>the</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ancial Stability Board <strong>and</strong> International Association of <strong>Insurance</strong> Supervisors’ discussions, April 19