OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

The process was divided into three stages:
1. Clarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exercise
Careful planning in the early stages of scenario development is essential to ensure the
quality of any scenario exercise. This stage of work included clarification of why we are
building the scenarios, the issues to be addressed (i.e. future development of
consumption and production patterns in Europe) and defining the vision for the scenarios
(i.e. a One Planet Economy in Europe by 2050).
2. Laying the foundation for the scenarios – creating a scenario framework
The future development of consumption and production patterns in Europe depends on
the interaction of many different driving forces. Stakeholder input is essential at this
stage to making sure the foundations of the scenarios take into account as many
perspectives as possible. Expert stakeholders participating in the OPEN:EU scenario
development workshop were asked to work in groups to identify potential trends and
dynamics in drivers, as well as uncertainties associated with the trends and drivers that
are especially important in determining how the future evolves, but whose future
development is highly unpredictable. From an initially large number of driving forces,
participants agreed on two that they considered as being the most ―critical uncertainties‖
in determining how the future development of consumption and production in Europe
evolves – these are:
a) The momentum of technological innovation: ranging from dynamic to stagnant.
For example, advances in electricity generation technologies could either be more or
less rapid, with implications for the cost and availability of alternative options in the
future and the ease of reducing the EU‘s carbon footprint to that of a One Planet
Economy.
b) The motivating mindset behind the economic development paradigm: ranging
from quality-of-life-driven to growth-driven. For example, the individual could see
maximising income growth as more or less important compared with other nonfinancial
forms of utility, with implications for the consumption of material goods and
the ease of reducing the EU‘s impact across the Footprint Family.
These two uncertainties were chosen by the participants as being the two driving forces
behind the scenario framework. The OPEN:EU scenario framework plots the two
uncertainties on two axes to create a matrix of four unique scenario quadrants,
representing four sets of conditions within which consumption and production patterns in
Europe could develop to 2050. This framework is presented in Figure 1 below.
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