OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

and services and find new ways to reduce inputs, minimise waste, improve management
of resource stocks, change consumption patterns, optimise production processes,
management and business methods, and improve logistics. In order to achieve a
resource-efficient Europe, we need to make technological improvements, a significant
transition in energy, industrial, agricultural and transport systems, and changes in
behaviour as producers and consumers. The OPEN:EU scenarios begin to explore
precisely these types of changes and the associated policy effort needed to bring them
about.
With the help of the EUREAPA tool, we will be able to measure the impact of the policy
interventions outlined in the scenario storylines on the Footprint Family of indicators. 17 In
effect, scenarios will thus provide an opportunity for a first test run of the EUREAPA tool‘s
ability to evaluate the impact of a specific kind of policy effort. Future users of the tool
will be able to do so themselves, applying the tool to test whatever policy interventions
they wish to define.
The Commission has indentified the need for a vision of where Europe should be in 2050
and a long-term policy framework that can provide a clear path for businesses and
investors:
“It is important to sharpen the focus on the action that has to be taken in the next ten
years to put Europe on the right track and to speed up the transition.” (European
Commission 2011, 2)
In the OPEN:EU scenario exercise we have started to outline the key elements of a
number of different long-term policy paths for the EU to get to a One Planet Economy by
2050. The scenarios take into account the considerable uncertainty facing policy makers
today, and try to demonstrate that the quality of life in the world we ―arrive in‖ in 2050
will vary depending on the path we take to get there.
The approach to building a resource-efficient Europe must be ―complex and interlocking‖
(ibid., 4). Policy measures need to be mutually supportive and we need an overview of
the synergies and tradeoffs between different priorities, areas and policies. Initiating this
kind of an overview has also been the task of the OPEN:EU scenario exercise and is
something the EUREAPA tool is specifically designed to support.
The resource-efficient Europe flagship initiative will make use of roadmaps and scenarios
to build its long-term framework. A series of roadmaps are being developed in order to
ensure that the actions we take now are in fact well coordinated and that concrete
actions already decided for 2020 pave the way towards longer term goals for 2050.
These roadmaps include the Low-carbon economy 2050 roadmap, the Roadmap for a
resource-efficient Europe, and the Energy Roadmap 2050. The Commission will focus its
analysis in the resource efficiency roadmap on three approaches – namely: resource
prices, costs, and subsidies; resource-by-resource, for example where resources come
from and how supplies might change; and sectoral studies – and Commissioner Potočnik
has indicated that he ―attaches more importance to behaviour-changing policies such as
green taxes rather than ‗reactive‘ policies that punish polluters‖ (ENDS Europe 2010).
In order to build up the knowledge base for this initiative and ensure that analysis is
based on common assumptions and a shared vision, the European Commission will
17 This analysis will follow as a subsequent report in the OPEN:EU project.
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