OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

policy settings would ideally be plausible, it is not important for them to be probable. The
aim was to define policy pathways to a level of detail that will allow us to model them in
the EUREAPA tool and thereby check the consistency of the qualitative scenarios and
whether the envisioned policy pathways could in fact brings us back within the limits of
the planet‘s regenerative capacity. Given the constraints of this exercise, it was not
possible to undertake the type of detailed analysis that would be required to define the
hypothetical policy pathways to a high level of precision. However, the experimental
exercise can still yield valuable insight into the inherent synergies and tradeoffs between
the issues and their policy responses.
4. Modelling the scenarios
The qualitative part of the scenario development is followed by an iterative modelling
exercise to model effect of the policy measures for the four scenarios. For the modelling,
a new software tool, called EUREAPA, was developed, which for the first time brings
together three footprint indicators (the Ecological Footprint, the Water Footprint and the
Carbon Footprint). The EUREAPA tool was used to quantify the change in the Footprint
indicators as a result of the changes to consumption and production brought about by
each scenario‘s policy mix.
Testing the policy interventions with the model will help to determine the feasibility,
effectiveness and robustness of particular policies (including combinations of policies) in
reaching the One Planet Economy goal across the range of scenarios.
As stated earlier, there is an iterative process between Step 3 and Step 4. The nature of
the scenario development exercise is such that it is impossible to know at the outset if
the individual scenarios and combined policy settings will be effective at reaching the end
goal (a One Planet Economy in 2050). It may be necessary to reconsider certain
assumptions and policy settings within one or more of the scenarios if the modelling
exercise reveals that it is impossible to reach a One Planet Economy on the basis of the
initial settings. This report does not include the results of the modelling exercise, which is
being conducted in July 2011.
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