OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

ut regulations require businesses to measure changes in their social and environmental
performance.
About 70-80% of Europeans live in high-tech accommodations located in close
proximity to work and personal, social and community services. The education
system reflects the global mindset of Europe and is highly internationalised, focusing on
technology and adaptability.
Compared to scenarios 1 and 4, most Europeans voluntarily spend more time working in
order to enable additional consumption. Consumers value products and services based on
their resource efficiency, as social status is now linked to sustainable living. They also
demand high quality products; as a result, high quality, longer-lasting products are more
profitable and dominate the market. By producing and selling more high quality products
than today, companies are able to add more value while not increasing their resource
inputs and this value is shared with workers in the form of higher wages. Economic
growth is hence achieved without a growth in resource use and its related environmental
impacts.
Government policy is required to drive further changes in behaviour due to the
higher growth and demand in this scenario compared with Scenario 1. Policies
involve price signals such as the taxation of consumption of environmentally-harmful
products and services rather than direct regulation. Consumers have provided early
adopter markets for the new, developing technologies and consumer products. Ultimately
this mix of regulation, taxation and advances in technology has delivered a net reduction
in consumption for society overall.
Improvements in energy efficiency have continued to contribute to a relative
decoupling of energy use from economic growth in Europe between 2011 and
2050, although overall energy demand has increased. Compared with Scenario 1,
the focus in this Scenario is more on policies that encourage business models such as
Energy Performance Contracting/Energy Services Companies, and less on forcing utilities
to meet obligations. Smart metering is rolled out across the EU by 2020, enabling remote
load control, but only with the customer‘s consent.
On the supply side, emissions reductions are achieved via numerous costeffective
low-carbon technologies such as large-scale off-shore wind and solar
parks, widespread heat recuperation, and utilisation of local smart grids.
However, centralised power generation is more of a feature than in Scenario 1, due to
the higher level of demand for electricity and stronger economic growth focus.
Ultimately, ambitious trans-continental projects such as Desertec (generating electricity
from solar power plants in North Africa) are needed to enable the full decarbonisation of
Europe‘s energy supply to keep emissions in check.
Mobility is revolutionised, using less resources and energy. As oil and gas became
very expensive and shortages in supply a regular phenomenon during the first quarter of
the century, motor and alternative fuel technologies quickly advanced. From 2030, bans
are enforced on conventional road vehicles. Most airplanes have been redesigned to
become lighter, experience less drag and therefore need smaller engines that burn less
fuel. Cars run with electricity made from renewable energy sources. Long distance travel,
overall, is less necessary due to the maximum use of videoconferencing technologies.
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