OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

� Organic farming/permaculture measures to achieve nearly 100% organic
or permaculture production in the EU. Organic farming assistance subsidies
(independent of CAP payments) were introduced in 2012 with 400 EUR/ha and
were then reduced to 300 EUR/ha in 2020 and 200 EUR/ha in 2030, 100 EUR/ha
in 2040.
Trade and geopolitics
� International cooperation on carbon-intensive fuel taxation. As is the case
on the taxation of raw materials, the successful international cooperation that is
characteristic of this scenario enables a harmonised approach to the taxation of
carbon-intensive fuels, with the tax rate gradually being ramped up to reduce the
global consumption of these fuels (coal, oil and gas).
� Agriculture. In this Scenario, certain import barriers (tariffs) for fair trade and
organic agricultural products have been lowered compared to 2011. Foreign aid
has been directed to producers supplying such products (e.g. through the EU SFA
programme). However, an internationally-agreed ban has been imposed on
commodities with unacceptably high impacts on footprint indicators (e.g. palm oil)
and which are not certified to be sustainably sourced. With particular emphasis
placed on social welfare, trade agreements have been amended to require strict
compliance with worker rights codes (e.g. Ethical Trading Initiative (ETI)).
� GMO Food Import Ban. Next to Scenario 1, measures to restrict GMO (food and
organisms) products are most extreme in this scenario. An internationally-agreed
ban on the trade of GMO products was phased in from 2014 to 2024, such that
GMOs were no longer used or consumed in the EU by 2024 and led to a significant
global reduction in the use of GMOs, which has enhanced biodiversity of crops and
food security. A provision in the ban has allowed the import of GMO in extreme
circumstances where food security is in jeopardy.
� Trade policies which improve efficiency and result in reduced demand for
the most harmful products and product sectors. Available technology was
transferred to trading partners and shared as way of maximising efficiency gains,
and reducing the impact of the most harmful product sectors (e.g. (1) chemical,
rubber, and plastic products; (2) electronic equipment; and (3) machinery and
equipment). Trade policies were coupled with education and media campaigns to
reduce demand for harmful products, along with international pressure on
countries producing these products to institute regulatory reform that resulted in
reduced impact on the footprint indicators.
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