OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

Executive Summary
A set of future scenarios were developed as part of the OPEN:EU project to help support
policy makers in thinking about the policy effort needed to transform Europe into a One
Planet Economy 1 by 2050. This report provides an overview of the methodology that was
used by the project team in the development of the scenarios, and an illustration of how
life would be in 2050 in each of the scenarios. It places this scenario exercise in the
context of the EU‘s overarching plan for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth over the
coming decades as well as in the perspective of other existing scenario exercises that
address similar themes.
There are four narratives that provide alternative, albeit not necessarily ideal, visions of
the transition toward a One Planet Economy in Europe by 2050. They present both an
illustration of life in Europe in 2050 and the policy settings that are necessary to support
the transition to this common end point under different assumptions about the future.
The scenarios were developed via a back-casting exercise on the basis of stakeholder
input provided during a two-day workshop in September 2010.
Scenario 1, ―Clever and Caring‖, assumes rapid technological change combined with a
high level of preparedness to move away from materialism and the traditional focus on
economic growth. This enables a relatively painless shift to a high-tech, but more caring,
collaborative and sustainable society. In this world, Europeans recognise that sustainable
lifestyles are paramount to the continued function of global ecosystems and the livelihood
of future generations. Competition has largely been replaced by cooperation. Planned
obsolescence of technology has been replaced by planned durability and reuse. The
European health and education systems reflect holistic social values. Social innovation 2
flourishes at the neighbourhood, city and regional levels due to robust participatory
governance and ample time availability for personal activities. Nearly 95% of farms in the
EU are organic or permaculture-based. The financial system is radically different and has
broadened its focus from the short-term and profit-driven models of lending to include
social and environmental considerations. Energy infrastructure is largely decentralised
and flexible.
Scenario 2, ―Fast Forward‖, assumes the economic growth focus of today will continue
to be a driving force. The transformation to a One Planet Economy has to be spurred on
more aggressively by policies designed to maximise the potential of technological
innovation to improve resource efficiency, to constrain overall consumption and to deal
with global distributional issues. Without a ―green tech revolution‖ and strong political
action, Europe would have been unlikely to stay within the limits of a One Planet
Economy, and there would have been a high risk of social and economic instability at
global and regional levels. About 70-80% of Europeans live in a highly modern city in
high-tech accommodation located in close proximity to work and personal, social and
community services. Improvements in energy efficiency have helped drive the decoupling
of energy use from economic growth between 2011 and 2050 beyond current trends (in
transport, for example, there has been a large-scale reduction on the dependency on
1
A One Planet Economy is an economy that respects all environmental limits and is socially and financially
sustainable, enabling people and nature to thrive.
2
A social innovation is a novel solution to a social problem that is more effective, efficient, sustainable, or just
than existing solutions and for which the value created accrues primarily to society as a whole rather than
private individuals (Phills, et al., 2008, p. 36).
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