OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

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Table 1 Defining characteristics of the OPEN:EU scenarios Key Key features assumptions Clever and Caring Fast Forward Breaking Point Slow Motion � Quality-driven mindset towards development � Dynamic technological innovation � People have voluntarily become more socially responsible and environmentally aware in their lifestyles and act less selfishly � Planned obsolescence of technology has been replaced by planned durability and reuse � Energy infrastructure is largely decentralised and flexible. � Competition has largely been replaced by cooperation � Quantity-driven mindset towards development � Dynamic technological innovation � Aggressive policies to stay within the boundaries of a OPE despite ongoing growth focus and to deal with global distributional issues � Global production zoning � Mix of regulation, taxation and innovation delivered massive efficiency gains, decarbonisation of power sector and shift to renewable electricity use for transport and heating � Quantity-driven mindset towards development � Technological stagnation � European society is strongly divided, a large gap exists between rich and poor � The costs of new technologies did not fall rapidly enough and new technologies were not deployed quickly enough to avoid energy shortages � Scarcity of resources leads to global resource conflicts � Shareholder profits dominate over stakeholder values � Nearly every aspect of life is eventually regulated by the state to address spiralling consumption � Quality-driven mindset towards development � Technological stagnation � Prices are strong drivers towards resource efficiency and sufficiency � Collaboration and knowledge sharing are more important forces than competition in business � Dynamic social innovation increases human capabilities, welfare and environmental sustainability � Culture of repair and reuse, reinforcing a strong circular economy � Holistic approach to education: self-awareness, environmental awareness, spiritual and community values play a key part Page vii of 57
Main policy interventions � Economy: Environmental pricing reform � Labour: guaranteed minimum "living" wage; mandated phased-in limits on maximum paid weekly working hours � Resources: footprint tax, advanced labelling, household waste measures � Energy: advanced fossilfuel power plants are successfully deployed along with a large-scale roll-out of renewables; strong carbon pricing and energy efficiency schemes � Trade: Extra-EU investment in low carbon development; global benefit-maximising trade policies aimed at high impact trade sectors; GMO food import ban � Economy: focus on spurring strong competition for eco-innovation � Labour: guaranteed minimum ―living‖ wage across the EU � Resources: Personal resource and emissions allowances , footprint tax � Energy: Carbon pricing, smart metering, ban on conventional vehicles � Trade: preferential trade with countries with the lowest footprint intensity � Economy: shift in the tax burden from labour to resources � Welfare: strong measures to control population growth � Labour: Progressive income taxation to curtail excessive demand and provide funds for R&D investment. � Resources: Personal resource and emissions allowances , footprint tax, meat tax; strong measures to foster ―reduce, reuse, recycle‖ � Energy: highest carbon prices of all scenarios and aggressive ―at the pump‖ petrol taxes � Trade: strong restrictions � Economy: transition to a beyond-GDP model, helped by OPE indicators � Labour: guaranteed minimum ―living‖ wage; limits on weekly working hours; 2 years of community service � Resources: footprint tax, advanced labelling, household waste measures � Energy: carbon tax replaces cap and trade; phase out of inefficient appliances � Agriculture: Measures to achieve 95% organic farming / permaculture production � Trade: fuel import policy, GMO food import ban Page viii of 57
Page 1 and 2: OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgements We are grateful to
Page 5 and 6: Abbreviations BAP Biomass Action Pl
Page 7: fossil fuels). While energy demand
Page 11 and 12: 1. Introduction The OPEN:EU project
Page 13 and 14: To try to address this uncertainty
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1 The OPEN:EU Scenario Frame
Page 17 and 18: 3. One Planet Economy scenario stor
Page 19 and 20: Energy infrastructure is largely de
Page 21 and 22: � More flexible working arrangeme
Page 23 and 24: fossil fuel plant is also made poss
Page 25 and 26: Scenario 2 - Fast Forward DRIVERS:
Page 27 and 28: With a large global population and
Page 29 and 30: y EU companies. Beginning in 2020,
Page 31 and 32: Scenario 3 - Breaking Point DRIVERS
Page 33 and 34: Nuclear power is an important part
Page 35 and 36: � Cash prizes. Cash prizes to rew
Page 37 and 38: Industrial policy � Raw material
Page 39 and 40: Trade and geopolitics � Trade pol
Page 41 and 42: Average wage-based working hours ar
Page 43 and 44: environmental improvements could be
Page 45 and 46: Energy and transport � Tax breaks
Page 47 and 48: 4. Link to current policy initiativ
Page 49 and 50: present joint modelling scenarios u
Page 51 and 52: to the sharing of opportunity and c
Page 53 and 54: The study takes a households perspe
Page 55 and 56: 5. Conclusions Prior to conducting
Page 57 and 58: 6. References Bishop, P., Hines, A.
Page 59:
Project Partners one planet economy
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OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

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