OPEN: EU Scenario Storylines Report: - One Planet Economy Network

Energy and transport
� Power station efficiency standards. Extremely tough efficiency improvement
standards were enforced on existing coal and gas-fired power stations from 2015
onwards, partly because of fear that new technologies would not fall in cost as
rapidly.
� Fossil fuel taxes. Most substantial increase in fuel taxes ―at the pump‖ to drive
vehicle efficiency improvements, stimulate sustainable biofuels uptake and reduce
consumption since the breakthroughs in electric mobility and other technologies
was not as successful in this Scenario. These types of measures were applied to
the entire transport sector (e.g. the aviation sector was forced to use biofuels,
significantly increasing its costs). Individual transport (via road, air etc) becomes
unaffordable for many people.
� Carbon pricing. Despite the efficiency standards imposed on power stations,
carbon prices spiked rapidly (e.g. reaching towards 100 EUR /tonne by 2020) due
to the lower pace of technological innovation on key technologies including largescale
renewable energy (e.g. CSP) plant and advanced fossil fuel plant
incorporating CCS. Expensive nuclear power has the greatest role in this Scenario,
adding to social tension in many countries. The high energy prices cause an
affordability crisis for many consumers. From 2020 to 2030 a softening of
emissions credit import restrictions was implemented under the EU ETS to try to
push down carbon prices to soften impact on European industry and households.
The worsening trade and geopolitical relationship with the rest of the world (see
below) made this approach rather ineffective. Energy and emissions-intensive
goods and services remained expensive throughout the period.
� Energy retrofit subsidies. Massive government subsidisation of energy efficient
building retrofits and strong enforcement of building retrofitting standards were
introduced from 2030 onwards after a series of devastating energy shocks to
address the lack of technological solutions on the supply side (and hence drive
emissions reductions via lowering demand).
Agriculture and land use
� Major CAP Reform. 12 Direct payments have become more equitably distributed
among Member States, but significantly lower overall and only where the
crop/animal product meets a carbon intensity performance standard. There was
some elimination of market intervention measures and trade barriers, but not to
the same extent as Scenario 2. Additional environmental service/benefit payment
was phased in by 2018.
� Organic farming measures to achieve 50% organic production in the EU
and extra-EU controlled lands. By regulation the share of organic farming
increased significantly, but less aggressively than in all other scenarios, by 2.2%
every year (from 2007 baseline of 4.1% in the EU 27) to 28.6% in 2020 and up to
50% in 2050. To meet the 50%, the EU purchased land located outside of the EU
27, mainly in developing countries, for the purpose of organic farming and other
food production.
12 In this scenario, the architecture of the CAP is conceptually in-line with Option 2 of the CAP Towards 2020 EC
Com.
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